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Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption


NoelC
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I just don't get it anymore. Why won't Microsoft just capitulate to the fact that Windows 7 is best version of Windows and Windows 7 v2.0? Sure they'd lose some face, and it might be seen to some as a defeat, but if you think about the long term they'd garner a much larger adoption rate.

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Well, Windows 7 was good when it first came out, and it is still good today, but I for one think Windows 10 is a vast improvement.  I mean, you have the apps, the start menu, Cortana, fast startup, Microsoft Account, lots of integration with the internet.  I just believe that it is amazing what they have done at Microsoft.

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Unfortunately, for those in the know the story just isn't so bright. 

 

The integration that was once there is just gone - now desktop applications and Apps look like they're from two different systems entirely.  Big fonts, small fonts, links in the Settings App to remnants of old Control Panel applets.  The quality of the Apps is such that it's barely possible to find any use in them and the store is just littered with junkware.  Multimedia functionality is removed.  The Start menu isn't nearly as efficient or functional as 3rd party software for organizing things.  The desktop lacks configurability and elegance.  Cortana sounds like a cool idea for about 30 seconds then you find out how bad it actually works in practice.  And as far as integration with the Internet goes...  Ignorance is bliss.  You have no idea how much data your computer is sending out.  What's even more amazing is what they've failed to do at Microsoft.

 

-Noel

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Though the "data points" are obviously scarce (as a matter of fact only one), this:
http://gs.statcounter.com/press
opens a big doubt.
For the releases of Windows 7 and 8 - again rather obviously - there are no sensible differences between the US and the UK adoption rate (the fact that also the worldwide adoptions is not that much different is most probably a mere coincidence, as so many factors - including country average income and political situation affects the result).

Now, Windows 10 has been adopted in the first month by more people than Windows 7 was (but one has to remember that at the time a large number of people was still shocked by Vista :ph34r:) and much, much more than Windows 8.

One cannot but evidence how this is an unprecedented success for Windows 10. :w00t:

However comparing the US vs. the UK adoption rate (and since more or less they speak the same language there re no issues with translations/regional editions) there is something disturbing.

The UK adoption rate is much higher than the US (and though with a smaller increase most other English speaking countries present the same phenomenon):

US 5.64%

UK 8.45%

And: http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-AU-monthly-201508-201508-bar

AU 6.33%

CA 6.49%

 

But also some non-English speaking countries part of the industrial countries have much higher rates than the US:

D 7.94%

F 6.80%

 

WHERE is patriotism?

 

Two tentative hypothesis to explain this queer behaviour :whistle::

1. The US computing infrastructure (and consequently its market) is less ready for innovation

2. The good people of the US are either much smarter ;) or dumber :unsure: than the people in the other mentioned countries.

 

jaclaz

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Could the difference in countries be explained by the fact that Microsoft themselves have a large presence in the US?  Maybe they have to keep an older system in order to get the work of developing Windows 10 done...

 

>Windows 10 has been adopted in the first month by more people than Windows 7

 

No other system to date corrupted Windows Update in order to trick its users into adopting the new version.  The difference is akin to whether a shopper will part with currency in a store vs. give up their wallet/purse out front at gunpoint while being mugged.

 

Call up the Period July 2009 to February 2010 and note the shape of the Windows 7 curve.  It's not curved!  THAT's where the real story lies.  And XP lost initially to Windows 7.  But there were some bumps in the curves.  We shall see.

 

Will Microsoft release something in the next couple of months that people will think is genuine innovation?  That they will crave?  That's got to be the idea.  Keep boosting those adoption curves.  Can they pull it off?

 

-Noel

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Now, Windows 10 has been adopted in the first month by more people than Windows 7 was (but one has to remember that at the time a large number of people was still shocked by Vista :ph34r:) and much, much more than Windows 8.

One cannot but evidence how this is an unprecedented success for Windows 10. :w00t:

 

Comparing the adoption rate of an OS that is offered as a free in-place automated update with OSes that required purchase + install or purchase of a new system is a bit like comparing apples and oranges, don't you think?

 

Might be an unprecedented  fist month adoption but considering that nearly everybody that has 7 or 8 could have 10 now by just clicking yes on a dialog, it's really abysmally poor IMO.

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Might be an unprecedented fist month adoption but considering that nearly everybody that has 7 or 8 could have 10 now by just clicking yes on a dialog, it's really abysmally poor IMO.

+1 :yes:

I've never been more glad to be wrong: I was predicting about 37% share right in the 1st month!  :D

... And I sure do doubt I was the only one (that's what all MS's pushing 10 pointed to, after all)...

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No other system to date corrupted Windows Update in order to trick its users into adopting the new version.

Yes and no.

There is a precedent (which may be seen both as of little relevance of the uttermost one :unsure:) where windows did not respect the user settings to have NO automatic updates and Windows Update was triggered nonetheless:

http://windowssecrets.com/top-story/microsoft-updates-windows-without-users-consent/

http://www.informationweek.com/microsoft-updates-windows-without-user-permission-apologizes/d/d-id/1059183?

http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/it-news-digest/microsoft-admits-to-stealth-updates/

 

Comparing the adoption rate of an OS that is offered as a free in-place automated update with OSes that required purchase + install or purchase of a new system is a bit like comparing apples and oranges, don't you think?

Sure :yes:, but two different things:

1. Comparing apples and oranges is legit :yes:http://www.improbable.com/airchives/paperair/volume1/v1i3/air-1-3-apples.html

2. No matter the above and the patently obvious difference between free (as in gratis - actually forcibly pushed) vs. pay-for :yes:, NoelC has made a nice comparison:

The difference is akin to whether a shopper will part with currency in a store vs. give up their wallet/purse out front at gunpoint while being mugged.

this is what MS will state, maybe changing "unprecedented success" with "biggest achievement" or similar.

 

jaclaz

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No other system to date corrupted Windows Update in order to trick its users into adopting the new version.

Yes and no.

There is a precedent (which may be seen both as of little relevance of the uttermost one :unsure:) where windows did not respect the user settings to have NO automatic updates and Windows Update was triggered nonetheless:

http://windowssecrets.com/top-story/microsoft-updates-windows-without-users-consent/

http://www.informationweek.com/microsoft-updates-windows-without-user-permission-apologizes/d/d-id/1059183?

http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/it-news-digest/microsoft-admits-to-stealth-updates/

 

 

Ah, that's right.  Thanks for bringing that up.

 

Though interesting, and no doubt used to justify more recent decisions, updating the updater in stealth fashion is still pretty different from updating a major version of the OS itself.

 

Notably Microsoft deemed the act needy of apology then, even though the justification was of course that it was done purely for the good of the users ("That result would not only fail to meet customer expectations but even worse, would lead users to believe that they were secure even though there was no installation and/or notification of upgrades.")

 

Which, of course, sidesteps the real question of "Why not just tell people they need it then do the update the way all the others had been done?"

 

Aren't we lucky to have the whole of Microsoft watching out for us, covering up its own bugs before someone co-opts them into doing bad things?  It's like having a cat that takes that little bit of extra time in the litter box after its business is done...

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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Though interesting, and no doubt used to justify more recent decisions, updating the updater in stealth fashion is still pretty different from updating a major version of the OS itself.

 

Well, it still means that a user preference has been overridden and proves that they CAN do it :ph34r:.

 

The case of the update to Windows 10 is very different there is only some (repeated) insistence on attempting to trick the user into updating (and the usual lack of clarity in communication) but all in all the user actually needs to click on "yes" to get the Windows 10 Free update (even if by mistake or not knowing the disgrace that will land on his/her PC) the 2007 episode is a clear sign that explicit user settings may (and will probably be) overridden and is more related to the risk of what future updates may be delivered and related concerns about  "privacy" or however about the data sent to MS (or other partners) servers.

 

jaclaz 

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I'm apparently pretty decent at projecting adoption curves.  Another whole week has gone by and the actual Win 10 adoption fits my projected curve pretty darned well.

 

ProjectedCurves_9_8.png

 

Only thing is, there's been a slightly bigger drop in Win 7 usage and a faster falloff of updates from Win 8.1 than I predicted.  That's not terribly surprising I guess...  As one who has thoroughly evaluated Win 8.1 vs. 10 myself, I still prefer the former.

 

-Noel

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I'll be interested to see how the Windows 7 curve does over the next two weeks. With last week's dip it looks like it's dropping steadily, but this was vacation season. If it flattens out or even climbs back up a bit, that will be a very bad sign for Windows 10.

 

--JorgeA

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