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Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption


NoelC
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Who says that they had to abandon serious computing to pursue frivolity exclusively? The tacit acceptance of THAT is the real problem.

-Noel

See that's the real question.  I'll bet it's more shareholder steered.  This move isn't ulitmately decided by tech-savvy staff.  The shareholders probably are pushing Microsoft to "get with the times" to ensure a return.

 

I'm not saying I agree Noel (please understand that).  I just think that we're now an afterthought to Microsoft.

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See that's the real question.  I'll bet it's more shareholder steered.  This move isn't ulitmately decided by tech-savvy staff.  The shareholders probably are pushing Microsoft to "get with the times" to ensure a return.

 

I'm not saying I agree Noel (please understand that).  I just think that we're now an afterthought to Microsoft.

 

 

The point is that any executive should be able to perceive that the Microsoft's success in the home market is driven by the fact that people who work with it choose to use it at home.  That they abandoned business entirely implies those making the decisions are woefully single-minded.  To put it bluntly, Microsoft has been run by dolts in recent history.

 

And Jody, I'm not arguing with you, and I enjoy a good debate.  Please don't take my strong stance as adversarial.  We most likely both would like to see Microsoft succeed, as would a lot of folks here.  It's just all too clear why they're not going to do very well.  I don't think they'll fail, per se, but they're not going to advance the world of computing as they actually could have done.

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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...I just think that we're now an afterthought to Microsoft.

 

I'm afraid that's exactly right. :}

 

+1... And, BTW, MS does not need to worry too much about its its established and highly successful business in work/serious computing because most of that user base has just migrated to 7 from XP, and won't upgrade anytime soon (unless, of course, MS keeps pushing 10 on them on purpose... and that would sure be their worst possible mistake).

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... we're now an afterthought to Microsoft.

 

^ That has been written on the wall since the first worrying news on Tiles 8 came to light.

 

The currently undergoing sabotage of Windows 7 just confirms it.

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Once upon a time, there was DEC. Maybe we're nearing the time we'll be able to say the same about MS...

 

 

Interesting contrast...

 

Somehow DEC failed even though their technical prowess was second to none.  I guess it was management/marketing that messed everything up.

 

And now we see that Microsoft stumbles along despite technical prowess that's practically better than none.  This seems to say - much as I HATE the idea - that "perception is reality" outshines "build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path".

 

I'm actually typing this message on a DEC LK250 keyboard that's still best-in-show despite being more than 30 years old.

 

-Noel

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Somehow DEC failed even though their technical prowess was second to none.  I guess it was management/marketing that messed everything up.

 

I was only dimly aware of DEC when it was around so I don't really know if the following applies, but perhaps there may be a parallel to the contest between the VHS and Betamax VCR formats back in the '80s. Betamax was said to be technically superior to VHS, but the latter ultimately won out in the market for one or both of two reasons that I've heard:

  1. VHS was adopted by more companies (Sony kept the Betamax format for itself) and thus enjoyed greater market exposure;
  2. VHS tapes were physically smaller and offered longer recording times than Betamax tapes, so customers deemed it the more practical choice.

--JorgeA

 

P.S. My only contact with DEC was that there was a DEC store on the bottom floor of the office building where I worked back then. I never did walk into that store: I remember thinking how incredibly expensive their computers seemed to be, based on the window displays. (This, too, may help to explain what happened to the company.)

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Probably no parallel with Beta/VHS...

 

DEC was years ahead of its time and valued top quality engineering over all else - including (unfortunately) swinging with market trends. 

 

Though they made some efforts, DEC (aka Digital) were unfortunately unable to make the transition between big, room-sized minicomputers (okay, not all of them were room-sized) to desktop microcomputers.  Their level of engineering required the world to change less quickly, and we know who won.  Half-baked now simply beat well-engineered later.

 

By the way:  It's their operating system design (VAX/VMS) that was ultimately re-implemented as Windows NT, and is the basis for all the Windows versions we have in recent history.  Look up Dave Cutler's history some time.

 

Things I liked:  DEC built hardware to last, and software to do serious computing.  I worked for quite a few years doing engineering work with their gear, even going so far as doing operating system modifications.  Not only did I write software for Digital systems, but also using a Vax I led a 2-man team and we designed and coded an entire operating system plus applications for machines all over the country that looked after airport surveillance radar for 25 years.  As far as I know it never crashed.

 

Trust me, if Microsoft engineering were to have maintained even 5% of the sense (and focus and seriousness) Digital's engineering had, we'd have entirely a different situation with Windows today.

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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Besides DEC's many achievements, it's also forever linked to unix and the C programming language.because the original AT&T Unix was developped, in 1969, on a PDP-7 (and later on a PDP-11/20) at the Bell Labs research center by Ken Thompson, Dennis Ritchie, and others (being named UNICS by Peter Neumann, in 1970... and a little later, that became Unix). Moreover, the development of C started in 1972 on the selfsame PDP-11/20, being also led by Ken Thompson, Dennis Ritchie. Without DEC, the world today would be surely very different!

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Another week and my projected curve for Win 10 adoption is still frighteningly on target...

 

My original predictions from the original post in this thread are shown in in light colors.

 

ProjectedCurves_09_15.png

 

Win 7 isn't faring as well as I thought it would...  I apparently didn't anticipate as many people moving off Win 7 and onto...  OSX (the purple line).  Perhaps these were people on the fence, waiting to see whether Win 10 was any good...

 

-Noel

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Betanews published an interesting analysis:

 

Windows 10: A closer look at usage numbers

 

51Degrees’ data proves that there has been a large increase in a matter of four weeks but whether the increase echoes 75 million installs is debatable. What is interesting is the level of web traffic that is still recorded from the likes of Windows 7, Windows XP and Windows 8 -- even the unpopular Windows 8 still facilitates 4.94 percent of traffic.

 

Windows 7, the age old favorite, monopolizes web usage with 58.29 percent, only decreasing by 1.29 percent since the introduction of Windows 10. Although Windows 10 has had an influx of installs over the past four weeks, this could be due to curiosity, not necessarily a story of dedicated Microsoft users who adopt each and every upgrade.

 

Windows 10’s issues around privacy and disclosure remains and with the Threshold 2 update in the pipeline, giving users more control over what information the operating system shares and the need for increased transparency of patches and updates could be the defining factor in Windows 10’s ongoing success.

 

--JorgeA

 

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When I worked at Streamline in Brantford, Ontario, we deployed a LOT of DEC servers (Intel machines - not DEC Alpha :) ), mostly running SCO Open Server.  Very tough machnes.

 

I am a little concerned with HP doing its company split.  I really like their workstations.  In many cases, they can be used as small servers.

Edited by JodyT
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It seems that companies can't seem to run in these modern times by specializing in high-end, serious computing, because the profit margin for the high-end equipment is just not there - not to mention it takes serious amount of engineering work to bring a true workstation (or server) class machine to market; not just packaging a reference design.

 

What will happen when nobody's left building serious computers any more?  Do software engineers all just stop working?  Who develops all the BS toys the public craves then?  Do big companies like Apple and Microsoft create development systems only for themselves?

 

Future humans may look back wistfully, during stories told by elders around the fire, on the time when everyone just turned away from doing work and focused solely on fun and games.

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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