Jump to content

Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption


NoelC
 Share

Recommended Posts

OT, but not much, reportedly the average Windows 10 users are using the store 6 (SIX! :w00t:) times more than an average Windows 8 user:

http://blogs.windows.com/buildingapps/2015/09/17/more-ways-to-bring-your-code-to-fast-growing-windows-10-store/

Given the minimal amount of non-games and non-gadgets on the store, I would presume that on average Windows 10 users are on average represented by non-interested-to-serious-programs people. :unsure:

jaclaz

Link to comment
Share on other sites


^^ So the inference would be that that 6x Windows Store traffic among all those new Win10 users will quickly drop to 5x, then 3x, then 1x. Maybe even to 0.5x eventually. <_<

 

It would be interesting to see a graph charting Store traffic among Win8 users over the last three years.

 

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still comfortable with XP Sp3, yet I opted for the MS offer to a free 'upgrade' of my Windows 7 Home Premium to a 10. I am not certain, but I seem to remember some words about the update being good for one year but at 85, that doesn't bother me much.

 

But as I don't see any reason for using 10, I am uncertain whether I should install double boot XP/10.

 

Anyhow, the reason I am here now is:

 

Can I use a SSD drive with two partitions, install Win XP on the first, then Win 10 on the 2nd partition, and the double boot will be taken care of just as it used to with XP / Win 7?

 

I am sort of hoping I'll be done reinstalling OS'es again.

 

I may be a gullible fellow, but not wrt MS operating systems.

 

I took a peek at Linux Mint but was not convinved that it would  become a solution for me to be comfortable with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another week has gone by and my prediction about Win 10 adoption, made no fewer than 3 weeks ago, is still holding with frightening accuracy.

The only thing I didn't anticipate properly was that Win 7 usage would fall off so much without a corresponding rise in Win 10 usage.  I guess people are either abandoning desktop computing or are giving up on Microsoft and contributing to the rise in OSX usage.

 

Not exactly enviable performance for something that's free and supposed to herald in the next generation of computing.

 

The swami knows all, tells all...  Original predictions in light colors.

 

ProjectedCurves_09_22.jpg

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One can only go with what one can find.

Any reason to believe the stats are skewed any particular way because users of one system block more stat counting than users of another?

 

Not at all. IMO, one can safely assume Ghostery users are evenly and randomly distributed among the OSes it can run on, except, perhaps, Win 10. Since Win 10 is quite new (and hard to tame), most installs should still be plain vanilla, so I doubt many 10 users would actually be using Ghostery (or whatever else, BTW) this soon. That means that, at worst, the available data overestimates how many Win 10 machines are there. Moreover, 3000000 is trace (actually about 0.1% of the total at most, if at all), when compared with the total market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Win 10 surges ahead - though it's still touching the pixels of my ORIGINAL prediction, now a month old.

 

ProjectedCurves_09_30.png

 

Looks like Win 7 usage might actually be recovering.

 

-Noel

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NoelC, what are the two OSes that are running just ahead of Win10 in that latest graph? The one that appears to be blue seems to have just recently dipped below the purple one. Which is what?

 

And how about the three near the bottom, particularly the gray one that's been steadily climbing?

 

--JorgeA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, graphs are nice :yes:, but what really counts is comments about them ;).

 

It is clear that for the first time on 27 th September Windows 10 (briefly) surpassed XP in use.

 

It cannot be underestimated the relevance of this information :no:, it tells us how great this success is :unsure:, in only two months the new, groundbreaking modern OS has managed to overtake the deprecated, unsupported since 1 and a half years, OS that MS attempted to kill in every possible way (+1) and all this through only gently pushing to every 7 and 8/8.1 user the new OS for free.

 

jaclaz

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But of course!  That's why I left you slot 72 to do just that.

 

In all seriousness, it has crossed my mind that it is more than irritating that there would be some who would call that a success.  Optimism is fine for people, but for companies it strikes me more as Marketing trying (yet again) to mislead the public.

 

I so fondly remember when hard work was the way to success.

 

-Noel

Link to comment
Share on other sites

    Yes, hard work and not a "free upgrade" gimmick for the first time in Microsoft's history, along with advertisement software that is not designed to be disabled, that pops up every couple of days now on computers that still dare to run Windows 7 or 8.1:

 

GWX%20pest.png

 

    Unlike other notifications, that advertisement doesn't close automatically.  Windows 10 has already been downloaded to this laptop at the cost of 6 GB of space and Internet bandwidth.  Now Microsoft is just trying to coerce the user into clicking the button so it's not all in vain.  I don't know about everyone else here, but given the extraordinary effort going into this, combined with its declining momentum, I see "failure" written all over this.  Windows 10 should have passed XP long ago.  Instead, I am still regularly seeing computers everywhere with the GWX icon.  People are intentionally passing up the "free upgrade" offer, but don't know how to remove the advertisement, which seems to be getting more and more aggressive as time passes.  Who passes up free?!

Edited by Techie007
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sad but true, Techie007.  That little clock icon really implies "it's urgent" doesn't it?

 

If they're Win 7 users they may even still trust Microsoft to "do the right thing" regarding engineering their OS, even in light of what's happened with Win 8 (not everyone has had the need or opportunity to skip Win 8 on purpose). 

 

I don't know how many folks I've met over the past year or so that said, "we've been through a bad OS, good OS, bad OS, so now it's clearly time for a good OS again".

 

People are optimistic in general, and they've enjoyed very inexpensive software that's given them good value from Microsoft in the past.  It's not unreasonable for naïve folks to continue to expect that.

 

-Noel

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...