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Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption


NoelC
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@JorgeA, The curves I'm showing pretty much already are bad signs for Windows 10.  :yes:

 

@Formfiller, what would you expect?  It doesn't do anything better than its predecessor except possibly introduce some new game-playing features that no application is yet poised to take advantage of.  Some might buzz just because it's "shiny and new" but it's not even shiny.

 

-Noel

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Thanks for the link, xpclient. :thumbup  Verrrry interesting...

 

For future reference, here's the key graphic from that post --

 

windows-10-usage-share-1-100613081-large

 

And the conclusion:

 

One thing does seem clear: If Windows 10's usage share -- and data derived from other third-party sources -- doesn't improve at a faster pace, Microsoft could run through the 12 months of its free upgrade without enough to justify the effort, or make its professed goal of 1 billion Windows 10 devices by mid-2018.

 

--JorgeA

 

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No other system to date corrupted Windows Update in order to trick its users into adopting the new version.  The difference is akin to whether a shopper will part with currency in a store vs. give up their wallet/purse out front at gunpoint while being mugged.

 

-Noel

Isn't that a wee bit strong?  (LOL funny though) but they are trying to get everyone on a unilateral platform.  Information gathering apps are going to be the way software companies make money in the future.  Operating systems are just a means to an end in that respect, and while at it, provide the end user with the basic tools needed to achieve productivity.

 

I don't think there's much farther you can go with a desktop, is there?  Microsoft, even though they may fail at it because of their late entry, NEEDS to be in the mobility market.  Desktop environment like conventional Windows are indeed necessary, but not growth industries.  We may still need them in the office or for specialized work, but most people don't "want" them.  In fact I know a lot of people, mostly women who've told me that they always hated computers but loved the Internet (I responded to that with "Huh?), but a phone or tablet gives them the joy of the Internet without having to use geeky computers or websites.  Just use easily customized apps.

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Perhaps it's strong, but from my perspective accepting that companies will make money off us on the sly is very wrong.  And I don't think I'm alone...  The adoption rate has fallen below that of Win 7, which people had to PAY for.  This thing needs to fail, or our future will be ruined even more than commercial-supported television.

 

What predatory companies want only becomes the "new normal" if everyone who prefers the "old normal" just accepts that it has to be, in order to be polite.  Some things really are just wrong.

 

IdiocracyPoster.jpg

 

-Noel

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I don't think there's much farther you can go with a desktop, is there?  Microsoft, even though they may fail at it because of their late entry, NEEDS to be in the mobility market.  Desktop environment like conventional Windows are indeed necessary, but not growth industries.  We may still need them in the office or for specialized work, but most people don't "want" them.  In fact I know a lot of people, mostly women who've told me that they always hated computers but loved the Internet (I responded to that with "Huh?), but a phone or tablet gives them the joy of the Internet without having to use geeky computers or websites.  Just use easily customized apps.

 

The way I see it, Microsoft has failed every time they've tried to enter the mobile market. Trying to shoehorn a mobile interface into their flagship, desktop OS has alienated millions and already led to one version of Windows (8/8.1) failing. Windows 10 might just finish the job.

 

I'm sure I'm not the only one who views as Windows as the OS for getting things done, whereas Android and iOS are the toy OSes for trivial or, at best, limited and very specific purposes. That's one aspect of the understanding that I, as a customer, have historically had with Microsoft.

 

The other aspect is that Windows is, again historically, the OS that you pay for in order to get serious things done, whereas Android and iOS are the OSes that you get for free to do ephemeral things. Hence the arrangement that Windows doesn't track and monitor you, because you already paid for it, while the price of using Android/iOS is giving up your privacy and getting tracked and monitored.

 

Microsoft is trying to change this fundamental bargain it's had with its customers, turning it into another OS for trivia that keeps tabs on your activities and whereabouts. (Oh, and without even the "free" part.)

 

This is why I am (as countless others are) dissatisfied with the direction Microsoft has been taking Windows. If I'm OK with giving up my privacy for the convenience of mobile functionality, I can get an Apple or Android phone. But I'm not OK with that, which is why I am on Windows. Now Microsoft is seeking to take away that choice by turning Windows into yet another mobile operating system.

 

Microsoft is risking losing the market it dominates for the sake of markets where it has always failed.

 

--JorgeA

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I'm sure I'm not the only one who views as Windows as the OS for getting things done, whereas Android and iOS are the toy OSes for trivial or, at best, limited and very specific purposes. ....The other aspect is that Windows is, again historically, the OS that you pay for in order to get serious things done, whereas Android and iOS are the OSes that you get for free to do ephemeral things. Hence the arrangement that Windows doesn't track and monitor you, because you already paid for it, while the price of using Android/iOS is giving up your privacy and getting tracked and monitored.

 

Microsoft is trying to change this fundamental bargain it's had with its customers, turning it into another OS for trivia that keeps tabs on your activities and whereabouts. (Oh, and without even the "free" part.).

 

Microsoft is risking losing the market it dominates for the sake of markets where it has always failed.

 

--JorgeA

 

But there's the thing.  It's demonstrated that MOST people don't need or even want the product that gets things done.  They don't need full on office suite applications or audio production apps, or heavy photo publshing apps.  They just need small tailored apps to get quick things done.  Tablets and phones are not toys, and their OSs (even though I care not for them) aren't toys either.  They fit the bill perfectly for what MOST people want to do.  The term "MOST" doesn't represent us on tech forums.  We are quite the minority.  You might want to think most people are feeling turned against by Microsoft going in this mobile direction.  But the truth is, most just don't care.  They ditched Windows long ago.  To them, Windows is something they have to use at work, and they are just pining for the day that their boss lets them use an iPad instead.  I've seen it in action.

 

Now you might say, "Today's tablet and phone addicts used to use PCs and Windows XP religiously.  How did we lose them?"

 

Because in 2004, websites were still the norm.  In 2005 and 2006, YouTube videos had to be watched on a PC web browser.  And you had to use a PC to get all of those songs on your iPod.  (Hear that I never mentioned a Word document or an Excel Spreadsheet?)

 

Fast forward to 2015, and there are Android/iOS apps to view YouTube, and to post on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.  No one downloads MP3s anymore.  They just play songs on YouTube.  And, if they really did need to see a work-related document or spreadsheet, they can open it with Google Docs.  See?  They have everything they ever needed or wanted, WITHOUT being tied down to a PC or some dumb product called Windows (by the way, I don't think that, I'm just echoing the mindset of a millenial.  :) ) - but you need to hear it.

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Perhaps it's strong, but from my perspective accepting that companies will make money off us on the sly is very wrong.  And I don't think I'm alone...  The adoption rate has fallen below that of Win 7, which people had to PAY for.  This thing needs to fail, or our future will be ruined even more than commercial-supported television.

 

What predatory companies want only becomes the "new normal" if everyone who prefers the "old normal" just accepts that it has to be, in order to be polite.  Some things really are just wrong.

 

IdiocracyPoster.jpg

 

-Noel

But youth isn't just accepting the "new normal".  They have been asked time and again (check surveys, radio shows, etc...) and what they want is to have the localization and customization that Google and Apple affords them.  Now you counteract that with, "Yes, but you do realize that for those services to be as effective as they are, Google and Apple need to gather information from you that compromises your privacy. don't you"?

 

The response is a loud and resounding ....................... (wait for it) ...........................  "MEH!"

 

They just don't care.  They want their features.  Look Noel, I really ACTUALLY agree with you.  But the Genie is out of the bottle now.  People are now (not becoming - already are) dependant on things that on exist only because they willing to part with personal information.  Privacy is becoming a past concept.  It shouldn't be, but it is.  Take the latest Ashley-Madison hack for example.  Many belives the clients have no case to sue, because NO ONE should realistically expect absolute privacy on an online service.  Do you hear that Noel?  It is becoming foolish to think you have the right to expect online privacy.

 

Now, you take Microsoft who (prior to Windows 8x) needed to catch up in this race because moblile products were leaving Windows in the dust.  So they made a bold move with Windows 8 to incoporate an apps environment within and Explorer-based Windows.  Sure it flopped, but they seemed to perhaps recovered a tad with Windows 10 even if just for a little while.  They probably will never topple Google or Apple, but they need to be seen as trying to even have a chance of survival.

 

There is NO future growth in desktop systems.  NONE!

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I'm sure I'm not the only one who views as Windows as the OS for getting things done, whereas Android and iOS are the toy OSes for trivial or, at best, limited and very specific purposes. ....The other aspect is that Windows is, again historically, the OS that you pay for in order to get serious things done, whereas Android and iOS are the OSes that you get for free to do ephemeral things. Hence the arrangement that Windows doesn't track and monitor you, because you already paid for it, while the price of using Android/iOS is giving up your privacy and getting tracked and monitored.

 

Microsoft is trying to change this fundamental bargain it's had with its customers, turning it into another OS for trivia that keeps tabs on your activities and whereabouts. (Oh, and without even the "free" part.).

 

Microsoft is risking losing the market it dominates for the sake of markets where it has always failed.

 

--JorgeA

 

But there's the thing.  It's demonstrated that MOST people don't need or even want the product that gets things done.  They don't need full on office suite applications or audio production apps, or heavy photo publshing apps.  They just need small tailored apps to get quick things done.  Tablets and phones are not toys, and their OSs (even though I care not for them) aren't toys either.  They fit the bill perfectly for what MOST people want to do.  The term "MOST" doesn't represent us on tech forums.  We are quite the minority.  You might want to think most people are feeling turned against by Microsoft going in this mobile direction.  But the truth is, most just don't care.  They ditched Windows long ago.  To them, Windows is something they have to use at work, and they are just pining for the day that their boss lets them use an iPad instead.  I've seen it in action.

 

Now you might say, "Today's tablet and phone addicts used to use PCs and Windows XP religiously.  How did we lose them?"

 

Because in 2004, websites were still the norm.  In 2005 and 2006, YouTube videos had to be watched on a PC web browser.  And you had to use a PC to get all of those songs on your iPod.  (Hear that I never mentioned a Word document or an Excel Spreadsheet?)

 

Fast forward to 2015, and there are Android/iOS apps to view YouTube, and to post on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.  No one downloads MP3s anymore.  They just play songs on YouTube.  And, if they really did need to see a work-related document or spreadsheet, they can open it with Google Docs.  See?  They have everything they ever needed or wanted, WITHOUT being tied down to a PC or some dumb product called Windows (by the way, I don't think that, I'm just echoing the mindset of a millenial.  :) ) - but you need to hear it.

 

 

The point I'm making is that Microsoft is jeopardizing its established and highly successful business in work/serious computing, for the fantasy of greater growth in the sorts of activities you described. Not only has the company consistently failed at it, but markets are already close to the saturation point: pretty much everyone who wants a phone or tablet already has one.

 

We can of course talk about making mobile available to the developing world, and indeed the first company to figure out how to make a living by selling $25 smartphones with a $5 monthly subscription stands to dominate the market for people of modest means in Third World countries. But getting to that point implies that phones will have (to use economist jargon) become commoditized, and there's not much money in that -- recall it was at that point that IBM sold off its PC business.

 

For better or worse, there's not a lot of money to be made from personalizing ads to people who don't have two nickels to rub together. The driving force, as Apple's experience has shown, is people who have dollars to burn (and not much sense IMHO). When the market is fully saturated, I expect the mobile craze to start slowly normalizing. Smartphones will become as cool and exciting as washing machines (which they're actually trying to connect to the Internet).

 

And then Microsoft will be out at sea, having alienated its established market while making no appreciable dent in the new one.

 

--JorgeA

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Big as they are, couldn't they have advanced both fronts?

Jody, you're out of touch if you think business is 1) abandoning desktops and 2) needs fewer of them. Business computing is Microsoft's cornerstone.

Who says that they had to abandon serious computing to pursue frivolity exclusively? The tacit acceptance of THAT is the real problem.

-Noel

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Well I'm not out of touch on that front Noel.  I'm not trying to claim I have all of the answers.  And I know that desktops are still plentiful in corporate environments.  But many were adopting tablets three years ago.  But guess what?  Even that is fading.  Phones are even more compact and suited to some tasks where a person is moved to a satellite or home office.  Of course notebooks (and not desktops) take the first hit there.

 

I'm not arguing that corporate desktop use is not still massive, but it's not an innovative area.  I don't mean in terms of file system, server and OS improvements Noel.  I mean in function.  End users still link up to a web-delivered database, use email, and manipulate spreadsheets and documents.  I've seen a lot of it Noel.  And it will change.

 

But you're wrong if you think I'm trying to fight with you.  But a lot of people on tech forums get this idea that everybody still wants to use Windows.  It's simply not the case.

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