XP activation servers

[Guest]

Thanks for that, jaclaz. For a moment there I thought Microsoft was arbitrarily making me a criminal for using easily accessible/purchasable System Builder media for my own home-built PCs.

[submix8c]

http://unattended.msfn.org/unattended.xp/view/web/29/

Methods 2 and 3. Method 2 is for (any) non-"real" OEM. Method 3 is for "real" OEM (e.g. Dell, HP, etc.) Having a "generic" key works for the kit. Method 3 is for big OEM's and requires the OEM key for the associated manufacturer/PC plus the four files. Big OEM's have a special agreement with MS to get those files.

Method 1 is the topic being discussed by the OP (the Activation Servers).

[jaclaz]

http://unattended.msfn.org/unattended.xp/view/web/29/

Methods 2 and 3. Method 2 is for (any) non-"real" OEM. Method 3 is for "real" OEM (e.g. Dell, HP, etc.) Having a "generic" key works for the kit. Method 3 is for big OEM's and requires the OEM key for the associated manufacturer/PC plus the four files. Big OEM's have a special agreement with MS to get those files.

Method 1 is the topic being discussed by the OP (the Activation Servers).

Well, this does not answer the OP question.

Example:

1. You have a nice PC you built yourself (you are a one-man-show OEM ).
   
2. The install is activated online and you make a nice copy of WPA.DBL and WPA.BAK.
   
3. Years pass by, you never need to reinstall.
   
4. The hard disk dies, you buy a new or used working one and you want to reinstall legitimately your Windows XP OEM copy, you can find your original OEM CD with it's key but you cannot find anymore your backup of the files.
   
5. The MS activation servers have been shut down in the meantime.
   

What can you do?

I hope that at the time MS will shut down the service they will give a "local" activation program or give a "good for all" key, or give the delta to make such OEM's VLK-like or however needing no activation.

jaclaz

[dencorso]

I hope that at the time MS will shut down the service they will give a "local" activation program or give a "good for all" key, or give the delta to make such OEM's VLK-like or however needing no activation.

So do I. Yet, I fear this will never happen... then again, I do believe MS'll keep the service going for a long time, if not for any other reason, at least because shutting it down when about half the users worldwide (at least) still use XP would be courting a huge propaganda disaster.

[cluberti]

I would doubt that by 2014 it will be any larger than about 25% other than asia (piracy, mostly), given the trends even this year in 2011. Microsoft usually keeps updates and such available for at least 5 years after an OS officially hits End Of Life, although this will be the first OS that required activation to hit EOL, so I suppose we'll see. I would expect activation servers to be online for a few years after 2014, and 2019 (given their previous behavior with updates and articles, etc) seems like a reasonable time. If you can still find hardware and drivers to install XP onto properly in 2019, I'd be very surprised.

I guess "we'll see" is the answer, but Microsoft no longer supporting the OS but requiring activation will be the interesting bit once they start taking things down. Perhaps a hotfix to disable WPA is in the cards?

[dencorso]

I guess "we'll see" is the answer, but Microsoft no longer supporting the OS but requiring activation will be the interesting bit once they start taking things down. Perhaps a hotfix to disable WPA is in the cards?

I do hope so. If, as you say, the userbase falls to 25% (or even less, perhaps), it would be an elegant and cost effective way to shut down the sevice, while catering for the rights of legitimate owners. I think that'd make everybody happy.

[vipejc]

Although I can't find the source now, I do remember reading in some documentation from Microsoft that if they were to discontinue the activation servers, they would release an update that would disable the need for activation. I'll update this post if I can find the original article...

I can confirm this, as I just read it from a trusted source.

[Phenomic]

Microsoft knew they were in trouble when millions of Vista installations stopped calling home, people hated that s*** and deleted it. I know I deleted mine. Win7 (Vista lite) isn’t any better, I’m running it in VM under Linux, it’s a dog, no wonder people are going back to XP. Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft, so MS may go bankrupt or become insignificant. They fired 5,000 employees in 1 day awhile back.

So the OP has a valid concern, if XP stops functioning millions of businesses will grind to a halt, we may even have a worldwide recession.

[Tripredacus]

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

[Phenomic]

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/apple-rises-from-near-bankruptcy-to-become-most-valuable-company.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/apple-ipad-s-buzz-saw-success-cuts-into-pc-sales-at-hp-dell.html

[Guest]

The articles you linked do not prove your statement, Phenomic. Financial pundits do not reliably predict the future—or accurately describe the present, sometimes.

[CoffeeFiend]

Microsoft knew they were in trouble when millions of Vista installations stopped calling home

Only to call home with a different version of Windows right after (an extra sale of the OS) -- nevermind that they already bought Vista as well, so two sales of an OS for one PC. They should be worried about that?

Win7 (Vista lite) isn’t any better, I’m running it in VM under Linux, it’s a dog, no wonder people are going back to XP

For every person with that opinion, there's like a hundred of the other. I wouldn't ever go back to XP myself (way outdated), and I don't even know anyone who still willingly runs XP. Vista and Win7 were both FAR better in a lot of ways!

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

That was already proven wrong, but also: a piece of mobile hardware is outselling an OS (software) for a different kind of device? That's like saying planes are outselling boats (disregarding that it isn't even the case) and then predicting the future (the demise of boats, of course!) based on that.

so MS may go bankrupt

They have a vast range of products companies are buying (and are basically locked into, so they will keep buying), almost every PC sold comes with Windows, their stock is doing great (up by 10% this month, from $26.53 to $29.34) and they have huge cash reserves. Yes, they're clearly doomed! Even with Win8 being worse than Vista and WinME (Metro-only) they'll certainly survive -- plenty of time to turn around.

They fired 5,000 employees in 1 day awhile back.

Just like every major tech company does every once in a while a.k.a. trim the fat (and then they hire some more). And that was back in 2009, the same year Apple laid off 1600 people in retail alone, and even Google laid off a couple hundred people in that same year. HP, Cisco, Adobe, Dell, AMD, etc all had layoffs in that time frame.

So yes, doomsday for sure, and sooner than later. The sky is clearly falling, and there would be no easy solutions to this simple problem either.

[Phenomic]

The articles you linked do not prove your statement, Phenomic. Financial pundits do not reliably predict the future—or accurately describe the present, sometimes.

The numbers speak for themselves, I’m not interested in proving anything or debating.

Remember it’s not just installation, XP calls home regularly to “validate”, so if the servers go down millions of working copies of XP will become nagware/crippleware. So I’m sticking with Win2000.

[CharlotteTheHarlot]

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

Well of course you are correct. But what really helped the 'sales' of Windows 6.1 was in the killing of its competition, XP (and even Vista).

Kinda like a NASCAR race where all the cars except one is removed from the track.

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive, to say the least. If XP had been released (maybe as retail MCE) *and* still offered as OEM pre-installed, the numbers would surely be entirely different.

[Ponch]

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive, to say the least. If XP had been released (maybe as retail MCE) *and* still offered as OEM pre-installed, the numbers would surely be entirely different.

Huh... not the total. 1PC sold is still 1 licence sold, how do you go bankrupt from that ?