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Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption


NoelC
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If I'm having trouble figuring this out, I'm imagining a lot of other folks are also going to have trouble running WIndows 8.x and 7 forever.

 

The beauty of it is that whatever a human being can do, others can get undone. So, with patience, people like us, in forums like this one, will figure out how it's done. MS can add as many new modules as they wish, so long as image backups remain viable, it's just a matter of time and patience. And time is on our side, it's them who have to hurry to try and avoid (the already unavoidable) final flopping of 10.

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This week's earning report from Mr. Satya "got my groove back" Nadella claims Windows 10 adoption leaped from 75 million devices in Aug 2015 to 110 million to-date.  That's 35 million devices.  It's possible, I understand as a corporate talking head you need to be a spinster, no harm in that.

 

But down to dollar & cents, a company that 'restructures' earnings reports, relies on loss-leading Windows 10 to upsell an ethereal "cloud" service is starting to smell fishy.  (toss the books on the fire until you can cash out on your shares and bounce)

 

Why does the URL at USA today show "Microsoft-Earnings-Miss" yet preach otherwise?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/10/22/microsoft-earnings-miss/74407358/

 

 

From today's NYTimes reality post:  

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/technology/microsoft-earnings.html?_r=0

  • The revenue Microsoft gets when it sells copies of Windows to PC makers fell 6 percent
  • During the quarter, Microsoft’s revenue from its Surface devices fell to $672 million, a steep drop from $908 million a year ago.
  • A more jarring decline was the 54 percent drop in revenue, when the impact of foreign currency fluctuations is excluded, from its mobile phone business.

 

Intuit has bailed on Windows 10 and there's a lesson to be learned here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/outrage-over-popular-app-highlights-234328495.html

 

 "the lion's share of mobile app developers either ignore Windows Phone completely, or else end up neglecting it once they realize that the return on investment just isn't worth it — just as Intuit found. "

 

"And so, we see Microsoft's dilemma in minature: There just aren't a lot of reasons for developers to make Windows Phone apps or Windows 10 apps. And without those apps, it can't sell more Windows Phones. The vicious cycle marches on. "

 

 

Yet in the world of perception-dictates-reality, MSFT has been blowing up.

Since CEO Satya Nadella took over for Steve Ballmer in February 2014, Microsoft stock has risen from $35 and hit a post-1990s high of $50 a year ago. It closed up 1.7% at $48.03.

 

/me scurries back to the garage to continue working on my rocket ship to another planet

 

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Edit: forgot to add that if you check the Microsoft Store, the top free app with in-app purchases has about 127k reviews.  The top paid app has less than 10k.  Granted reviews aren't indicative of actual sales but that's a huge discrepancy from android and iOS apps.

 

Who's with me for developing a minecraft-style racing casino game with call of duty style side missions and castle-building overworlds!?!?

 

Windows 10 is like a mischievous pebble in my shoe.  I can't remove it, so I just keep wearing it. 

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noelc said:

 

"I found something on the Win 7 system where the "Windows Activation Validation Task" has to run every few months.  I allowed it through the firewall so hopefully the next run on December 14 will just succeed.  I assume something like that if not allowed to run will just kill the activation."

 

I wouldn't put it past them to do just such a thing.  I was going to say that I had a 7 instillation that had never seen the internet and that it had continued to run.  Then I remembered it is a Dell Laptop, that has the Bios authorization, so not a good reference point.  Do keep us posted, as I have often wondered if they might do something like this.  Or, even more neferarious (sp?), release something into the wild that kills evrything of theirs that requires activation, that is older than X.

 

The Penguin waddles off stage. :-)

Edited by bpalone
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Trouble is, I'm still not sure I have all the 'T's crossed and 'I's dotted to be able to run my Win 8.1 and 7 systems indefinitely.

 

I found something on the Win 7 system where the "Windows Activation Validation Task" has to run every few months.  I allowed it through the firewall so hopefully the next run on December 14 will just succeed.  I assume something like that if not allowed to run will just kill the activation.

 

No doubt Windows 8.1 has something like that too, but it's not in the scheduler and it's not called WatAdminSvc.exe, so I don't know which of the blocked communications is going to lead to activation failure.

 

If I'm having trouble figuring this out, I'm imagining a lot of other folks are also going to have trouble running WIndows 8.x and 7 forever.

 

-Noel

Personally I don't fear this. For one, we payed Win 7/8, they can't just deactivate it for the reason we don't install patches since April 2015. Edited by Tripredacus
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In my case I also block unwanted communications with a firewall, and distilling out and allowing just those that are necessary for it to remain convinced it's properly activated is difficult.

 

But beyond that, Microsoft could quite easily choose to deactivate an older system, whether or not you paid for a license.  Don't kid yourself into thinking you're under any different agreement than Win 10 users now.  They could justify killing an older system that's not updated as being a security threat to the wonderful world of people with their heads up their... cloud.

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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I think there are two unknown factors still looming, that might bring bumps in the curve:

 

1. MS uttered the "free update" will be possible for one year from launch. If they stay true to what they said, this may (in an unpredictable manner) affect the conversion rate.

2. "DX12 only" games within that period that might convince gamers to actually use this upgrade offer.

 

Once people actually have to pay for W10, the curve will show more truth about what people really think about it.

 

Anyone not convinced by W7 to upgrade from XP will not be convinced by anything, and especially not by W10. Those XPs will only drop out once the corresponding hardware dies, or a botnet owning those PCs kills them accicdentally.

 

If MS actually killed pirated XPs, half of XP out there would be gone, half of china would be without working PCs, and botnets would drop by 96%.

 

Just my 2 ct...

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's tapering off.

 

Soon Microsoft will be pulling some other tricks out of their asses.

 

I imagine they'll spend an unprecented amount of money advertising how great the next in-place upgrade is (I guess that's going to be close to whatever the insiders are already testing; no one who knows what they're doing seems terribly impressed so far).

 

How great to reset all your preferences; to reinstall all the Apps you've chosen to remove; to reinstall OneDrive and Cortana; to implement new methods of sending private information to the mothership; to break all the tweaks that might have made Win 10 something you could stand to use...

 

How great indeed.

 

-Noel

Edited by NoelC
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It's tapering off.

 

Soon Microsoft will be pulling some other tricks out of their asses.

 

I imagine they'll spend an unprecented amount of money advertising how great the next in-place upgrade is (I guess that's going to be close to whatever the insiders are already testing; no one who knows what they're doing seems terribly impressed so far).

 

How great to reset all your preferences; to reinstall all the Apps you've chosen to remove; to reinstall OneDrive and Cortana; to implement new methods of sending private information to the mothership; to break all the tweaks that might have made Win 10 something you could stand to use...

 

How great indeed.

 

-Noel

 

But @NoelC, I can't think of anything I'd rather do than to reconstruct all my customized Windows settings!

 

This is going to be so much fun... <rubbing hands together>

 

:angel

 

--JorgeA

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Else they might realize it's time to oust Nadella, then ask Bill Gates back. A similar move saved Apple, in the past. It might even work!

 

One thing's for certain, and that is that by bringing Gates back they can hardly do any worse than they currently are.

 

--JorgeA

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By the way, looking at the weekly stats on statcounter.com just now, just for fun I added up Win 8.0 and 8.1...  16.05% on the same scale where Win 10 has a whole 9.47%.  These are people actively using their computers to browse the web.

 

I think this says that even Win 8 users, even after 3 months of Microsoft's ridiculously aggressive campaign to push Win 10 on them free of charge, STILL by a significant margin think Win 8 is a better system?

 

Phrases that come to mind:

 

"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

"I'm mature enough to forgive you, but not stupid enough to trust you again."

"If it seems too good to be true, it most likely is."

 

-Noel

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