Looks to me like Win 10 will top out at about 10% adoption

[NoelC]

Take the stats from here:

 

http://gs.statcounter.com/#desktop-os-ww-daily-20150701-20150901

 

Resample it horizontally to make the curves (trends) more apparent, and...

 

 

-Noel

[dencorso]

That's yet another reason to conclude 10 already flopped: the initial impetus is gone, even with MS pushing it as forcefully as it's doing. It seems more people is defending their 7SP1 and 8.1 setups from 10 than I'd antecipated and, of course, most 8.0 and all current Vista and XP are imprevious to it.

[JorgeA]

That's a pretty cool graphic you came up with there, NoelC.

 

One factor that concerns me, though, is that Microsoft is probably not nearly done pushing Windows 10 out to users of 7 and 8.1. AFAIK it was always going to be rolled out in stages, rather than all at once. So that line could keep climbing steadily until everyone has had the, ahem, opportunity    to receive and install Win10.

 

Let me know if I've missed something in the analysis above. (I hope I did!)

 

--JorgeA

 

EDIT: typo

Edited September 3, 2015 by JorgeA

[dencorso]

What I see is 7 about level, 8.1 falling slowly and 10 still rising, but slowly, albeit somewhat faster than 8.1 is falling, but probably it's still too soon to be sure of all that.

[xpclient]

Just wait till the drivers stop being made for Windows 7. Everyone will "get the benefits of the improved Windows 10 experience".

[jaclaz]

And little by little existing hardware will fail and new machines will come with Windows 10, and you did not seemingly consider in the projection the success that the Surface 4 will have (at least in the perverted minds of MS executives ).

 

At 14" it is entirely new paradigm, a tablet that is actually a (small) table and costs like an actual design table.

 

It is obvious how this will improve readability of contents and allow to use larger Office 364^1/2 spreadsheets surely accountants worldwide will rejoice. (and they will have no objections to pay the equivalent weight in gold for the needed flimsy keyboard to punch numbers in it)

 

If I were the mayor in cities where there is a Microsoft Store I would be starting planning for the additional police resources needed to manage the crowds that will gather outside of them on launch date.  

 

jaclaz

[TELVM]

... It seems more people is defending their 7SP1 ... ... setups from 10 than I'd antecipated ....

 

You can bet your bottom dollar.

 

Luddites, surrender your Se7ens! - - - METROTARDS, COME AND GET THEM !!!

[NoelC]

At 14" it is entirely new paradigm...

 

LOL, I may have butted heads with you in the past, but I've got to say I do like your sense of humor.

 

-Noel

[jaclaz]

LOL, I may have butted heads with you in the past, but I've got to say I do like your sense of humor.

Yep, I just imagine the situation at corporate parties where the theme will be strangely revolving around "mine is bigger".

jaclaz

[NoelC]

After a few more days I see I am still dead-on w/regard to the projected Win 10 adoption curve, though Win 7 may have dropped a bit more than I predicted. 

 

But...  Amazingly - if anything Win 8.1 usage appears to have started to level off MORE than I predicted.

 

People must like even Win 8.1 better than 10 (I know I do).

 

-Noel

[JorgeA]

People must like even Win 8.1 better than 10 (I know I do).

 

Ditto!

 

I'm actually considering getting a Windows 8 license or machine as a little bit of a "future-proofing" measure. Never thought I'd say that, but then that's how bad things have gotten.

 

--JorgeA

[NoelC]

I hear you.  I'm glad I bought a big workstation when I did.  It might be good enough for a few more years.  After that maybe I'll retire and take up farming.

 

-Noel

[jaclaz]

I hear you.  I'm glad I bought a big workstation when I did.  It might be good enough for a few more years.  After that maybe I'll retire and take up farming.

But then you might start having issue with your tractor :

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/new-high-tech-farm-equipment-nightmare-farmers/

jaclaz

[NoelC]

True.  The Internet of Things is getting rather intrusive.  Perhaps a mountain man then.

 

Hah?  What trouble?

 

-Noel

[dencorso]

I agree that 10 probably won't get more than 10% anytime soon. And the graph below, when compared to the one for June shows that clearly, not just the Vista and XP (and 2k) shares, but also the one for 8.0, form an unassailable fortress 10 cannot penetrate (people who drew a line in the sand) and correspond to about 15%. All of 10's gains must come just from 8.1 and 7SP1, and 10's initial impetus seems already lost.