What's a Reasonable Windows Update Strategy Going Forward?

[NoelC]

Yes, it is right to mention that our ability to trust Microsoft to release updates that never cause failure is at an all-time low at the same time they're removing our ability to be a part of the choice to install them.

 

But even in a much bigger picture sense, it's possible any given update could "work" and STILL just make the system useless to us.  It's funny how the risk of Microsoft going "off reservation" and creating an OS that's unwanted every 3 years is so different than the risk that they'll do it 10 times as often, eh?  It's only about 2 months until the NEXT one, yet 10586 feels pretty darned iffy still.  Time flies, eh?

 

Always hovering in the back of my mind is that while with hacking we can still control Windows Update well enough that it can be stopped from loading the next major Win 10 build (just as we can stop GWX on our older systems), it seems to me that Microsoft could simply choose to not allow any given build of Win 10 to run indefinitely.  I imagine any one of the major Win 10 builds could expire at some future point - though I admit I could be wrong about this.  We've certainly been made to get used to that sort of thing with the insider builds, and there IS a "long term servicing branch", which does imply something about the systems that are NOT "long term".

 

It's also possible that stopping GWX could cause the same thing in Win 8.1 or 7 (though I dearly hope not).  Since the "upgrade" is free, it always makes me wonder how much more they could get away with legally.

 

-Noel

[dencorso]

It seems not many more people are moving on to 10, isn't it? These are NetMarketShare Desktop OSes, FTW.

[NoelC]

The stats I look at don't say that at all - but show Win 10 adoption at about 12% now and following the expected more or less straight line to overtaking Win 7 in early 2017 and hitting 50% in mid 2018.

 

I imagine there's a bit of a holiday bump because people ran more toy operating systems when they were off work for the holidays.

 

-Noel

[dencorso]

You prefer StatCounter, while I prefer NetMarketShare, mostly because it attempts to count "daily unique users"... 

However, in fact, they tend to agree reasonably (the more so as it's difficult to defend either statistics are truly precise to a tenth of a percentual point, let alone to a hundredth of it) especially when rounded to integer values. Yet, I think maybe StatCounter does underestimate the XP user share somewhat... There's a good comparative discussion about them in this article (over at ZDNet).

[NoelC]

So given that StatCounter counts hits, not unique visitors, could it be said that Win 10 somehow encourages 1% or 2% of all computer users to surf more (noting that Win 10 usage is going steadily up about 1% per month there too)? 

 

I guess it could be said that the more frivolous the computer usage, the more likely to surf.  That would explain StatCounter showing higher Win 10 numbers.

 

Thing is, the trend at each site using the same methodology seems to be differing a fair bit between the two (especially for Win 7), and I don't really see how that should yield anything more than short-term differences in adoption (or de-adoption) trend figures. 

 

Let's see what the first week in January, as people get back to work, holds.

 

Like you (I imagine), I'd love to see Microsoft fall on its face with Windows 10, which would finally teach the lesson that they actually DO ultimately have to deliver value in order to be successful, not to mention showing that computer users are not quite so incredibly gullible as a Windows 10 success would seem to imply.

 

-Noel

Edited January 4, 2016 by NoelC

[dencorso]

I think both datasets for December agree quite reasonably: if 90% of the market is on Windows, and we have solid 3% 8.0 and 10% XP, and both 8.1 and 10 jockeying for 10% each, that puts 7SP1 at about  57%...  All the above numbers agree reasonably also with StatCounter, except for 7SP1! There's a reason for it: mobile OSes!!! Did you notice their about 6% for iOS? And if, so, their unix should include Android, too! That's what drains the percentage that otherwise would be given 7SP1... Mobile and Tablet data. That's the other difference, besides not counting unique users. Of course, this is nothing more than my own 2¢, so feel free to disagree.

[Jody Thornton]

I mentioned this in another thread, but it probably merits its own thread.

 

.....

1. If down the road Microsoft does something SUPREMELY stupid (like removing the desktop/Win32 or some feature that I absolutely require, causing a "can't get there from here" situation), I'll just stop initiating all updates / upgrades and try to run the current system as long as possible while at the same time researching a move of all my operations to another OS - e.g., Linux.  I don't know how long a non-updated Win 10 will run, but I'll bet it won't be forever.

-Noel

Happy New Year Noel

 

Now if Microsoft were to abandon the Explorer shell, and go completely with a Metro/Modern model (which I think is the long-term plan) then in time, would you not just move your development focus to modern apps, and provide extended support for desktop apps?  I'm simply asking that if Microsoft were to go all Metro, would the demand for you to develop new conventional applications not also decline in the medium-long term?

[NoelC]

Happy 2016 right back at ya!

 

Yes, with caveats.  My software works closely with Adobe Photoshop software.  Most of their focus seems to be on their continued development for the desktop, so that's where I am now.

 

If Metro/Modern/Universal were to grow up and actually be capable of hosting a serious "to work" App like a Photoshop derivative, and Adobe were to go down that path, I'll be there too.  I'm keeping my eye on things like this:  http://blogs.adobe.com/photoshop/2015/05/photoshop-mobile-apps.html

 

And there's always Mac...

 

-Noel

Edited January 4, 2016 by NoelC

[BudwS]

Goals:

1.  Win 10 installs cleanly.  That is, after the install, it just runs without stalling, crashing or parts don't work. 

 

2.  If Win 10 is just in idle, it runs as long as there is power on the PC.

 

3.  If Win 10 software problems occur, a correction update/patch will be issued with great haste, not on a 4 month cycle.

 

4.  A purchasable Win 10 DVD will be available with the activating Key included at stores where PCs are sold.

 

Move forward:

1. Only if the above criteria are met, will a Win 10 production PC be considered.  So far, none of the above goals have been reliably met.  So no move forward.  Win 10 is for fun only.  The daily chuckle.

 

2.  Example for above (2.):  After about 3 days, Win 10 sitting idle with no mouse clicks or keyboard keys pressed, Win 10 stalls.  When it stalls, no mouse click or keyboard key pressed is acted on and responded to by the Win 10 software.  A manual power off is required to reboot Win 10.  It's good for another 3 days after that.  Doing a WU gets the message "Up to date."  I guess that means to wait 4 months for an update?

Edited January 6, 2016 by BudwS

[NoelC]

I recall reading all through the times of past operating systems about people who managed their systems so poorly that they had to reinstall the OS every so often.  I even ran across one who said he did it every month, like clockwork.  I always thought that was pretty weird, but then the Win 8 started sporting the new "Refresh" capability, implying even Microsoft was becoming convinced that the OS needs to be reinstalled every so often.

 

Now with Win 10 it's codified that THOU SHALT reinstall every 4 months at least.  I guess we have a similar recognition that it needs to be rebooted daily - which was a design constraint that was originally lifted by the advent of Windows NT.

 

We already have Windows Updates that cause us to reboot every few weeks at most.  What ever happened to the "zero reboot" initiative?  Another valid concept has fallen quietly by the wayside.

 

What's next?  Booting to a command line first, then layering the OS on top?  Programming in Basic (*cough* XAML *cough*)?

 

By contrast (note specifically the uptimes)...

 

Seen recently on Win 7:

 

Seen recently on Win 8.1:

 

I think I'm going to leave a Win 10 VM running starting today just to see how long it can go...

 

-Noel

[helpdesk98]

didn't MS recommend reformatting your system one every year (somewhere around the time of Win XP)? Once a year seems reasonable to me not every 4 months. Once a year is about how often I do it if my system needs it or I am no longer using the system. 

 

Edit: fixed failure to create logical sentences

Edited January 6, 2016 by helpdesk98

[NoelC]

I'm sure they did.

 

There are probably fairly few of us "old guys" still around who understand that in a proper universe a computer operating system should just work, long term, without trouble (save for maintenance).

 

Whatever.  I only have to endure this life for another 20 or 30 years.  Probably more like 20, because to go 30 I'll need health maintenance machines that actually work.

 

-Noel

[JorgeA]

didn't MS recommend reformatting your system one every year (somewhere around the time of Win XP)? Once a year seems reasonable to me not every 4 months. Once a year is about how often I do it if my system needs it or I am no longer using the system.

 

If we have to start reformatting every four months, then Linux's twice-a-year release schedule actually becomes less of a bother than Windows.

 

--JorgeA

[NoelC]

For what it's worth, though I've *never* been an advocate of in-place upgrades, my 10586 "upgrade" went in over 10240 without a reformat.  It *did* require quite a lot of re-configuration and de-installs afterward.

 

I haven't really detected any long-term instability as a result of doing the in-place install this time.  But I haven't really tried to rely on Windows 10 for serious work.

 

-Noel

[GrofLuigi]

Coming from AmigaOS, which didn't have stellar memory management, I'm used to rebooting in order to clear memory. But I also think it's a good idea on Windows too, so before I start any serious work, I reboot. Also, true reboot (non-hybrid or whatever) is a chance to perform hardware diagnostic of individual components. And as I tinker with registry a lot, reboot is also a must.

 

So I always tend to have as little uptime as possible.