beating the spread

[NotHereToPlayGames]

Strictly a curiosity question.

I'm not a gambler and I don't bet.  But...  Something has piqued my curiosity.

This question pertains to "beating the spread" and just how that "works".

A nearby NCAA basketball team has done "much better than average" this season, especially pre-conference play.

So they keep landing in national news much more than often on account of that "success".

But here is my "observation", they keep getting before-game "spreads" in DOUBLE DIGITS.

But RARE are their double-digit WINS.

Which leads to my curiousity...

I can't help but be curious on how "betting" AGAINST them would have benefited anyone that may have bet them to LOSE.

Because unless I'm mistaken, if the "spread" is DOUBLE DIGITS but they only win by SINGLE digits, then they technically LOST and betting for that LOSS is a *WIN*.

So how much would a person have "won" if, purely as an example, say $100 was bet that they would NOT beat the spread in FIVE consecutive games and regardless of them WINNING those FIVE games, they DID NOT BEAT THE SPREAD, so they didn't "win" in that sense.

[user57]

its a gamble
you dont know the variables
one varible to jump out would be corruption
in similiar things there are bet´s - while the bet´s are being told/know whatsoever (or told to the managers team)
the "team" was then told just to play defence - so you cant see the differens 
then the suppose to be the better team lost

but that would be 1 condition to leave this

there is also many things coming together, you defined a team based sport 
so a 1 good sportsman in that sport wouldnt win the match
dayly form not included 
injuries
missing people for that match 
sometimes players fit better to a different style then others

doping plays also a rule, for soccer a good drug is cocaine (as it increases brain activity and power to the body) (you therefore have to define what would be good for this sport also, you dont need a bodybuilder - they would be to heavy)

in the soccer example you have 11 people influencing the match
luck is also part of this - if we dont call it luck then we call it momentum - there was such things where good teams have lost to bad teams

so you wont have a clear answer
 

[Tripredacus]

I don't understand gambling much either. Just for fun I put your question into Gemini and this is an excerpt of what it responded.

 

Quote

You’ve essentially stumbled upon the concept of the "Public Team"—a phenomenon where a team’s popularity or media hype inflates the betting line beyond what the statistics actually suggest.

When a team is "hot" in the news, the oddsmakers (bookies) know the general public wants to bet on them. To balance their books, they make the spread more difficult to cover.

1. Understanding the "Win"

You are absolutely correct: in sports betting, there are two different results.

The Game Result: Who actually won the trophy/game.

The Spread Result (ATS): Whether the team won by more than the assigned number.

If the team is favored by -12.5 points but only wins the game by 8, they have "failed to cover." If you bet against them (taking the +12.5), you win your bet even though your team technically lost the physical game.

 

[NotHereToPlayGames]

Yeah, I actually have come to hate hate HATE sports!  I *literally* NEVER watch anymore (but scroll scores via web browser instead).

It was different when I was a kid, but nowadays, every commercial break is sponsored by a GAMBLING COMPANY with tiny fine print at the bottom for those with "gambling addictions".

Then there are things like https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/sports/list-players-coaches-sports-betting-gambling-allegations/6408736/

And this https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/sport/sports-betting-gambling-professional-athletes-dg

You can't even watch "news" programs that are supposed to cover "sports" without them also covering GAMBLING and be SPONSORED by GAMBLING COMPANIES.

I'm waiting for these to become ILLEGAL ADVERTISING (like cigarette commercials, not technically "illegal", but so HEAVILY regulated that no manufacturer bothers to "advertise").

[NullEntity]

Someone once told me to the effect of

"gambling is a poor mans dream"

[NotHereToPlayGames]

Yep!  I remind my brother of that ALL THE TIME.

He's big into lottery tickets, swears up and down he wins more than he loses but I can't get him to SPREADSHEET IT for PROOF.

Because I keep telling him "that's how the game is played".  Make you FEEL LIKE you are winning so that you keep buying.