That's a way to look at it that I (and probably a lot of other people) hadn't considered. Instead of waiting until XP patches stop coming out, you're saying that it's still worth it for malware writers to release their exploits before April 8. There is sense in this, because the way Microsoft's cycle works the bad guys would still get several weeks' head start on the exploit.

Well, basically any new exploit being brought forth is probably a result of effort being spent looking for ways into Vista, Windows 7 or Windows 8, not being specifically targeted at XP. They just get lucky, in the fact that some common code base goes back to earlier versions. Think of it as if you yourself were fixing to bring forth a product, would you want to be spending your time and money developing for a SHRINKING market? Would you really want to spend several hundred thousand dollars developing a a better buggy whip today? Last time, I checked there is a VERY LIMITED market for buggy whips.

The days of people getting into a system to just have bragging rights are pretty much over. These days it is done to generate revenue, even though illegally, still to generate a revenue stream. From what I have read, and connecting the dots, most of the malware is developed and then sold to someone that wants to use the exploit. The authors are only selling software for illicit purposes, of course, but just selling software. So, if the potential targets of that software is decreasing, why would they want to spend time finding new ways into a shrinking pool of victims?

bpalone

That's true, but windows XP is still undeniably the 2nd most popular OS out there, and I don't see that going away for a while, so there will be plenty of people still targeting Windows xp after EOL.

In fact, MS will be actively inviting it, if they offer patches to Vista+ and say "look, this vulnerability also exixts on XP, but we won't patch it".

Because, then, they'll be directing people to obscure vulnerabilities no one ever imagined existed.