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Vista putting a dent in 98 userbase?


TravisO

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From experience, these are the best stats (most broad) I can find, and I've been watching them for about 6yrs now.

It seems Vista is putting a dent in the 98 world, and while it may not apply to the kind of people that go here, but I wanted to point out that previously Win98 leveled off at 3% user base, but as of this month, it's gone down to 2%. Now the month is not over and the stats can be wrong (they're viciously rounded), but I thought you guys might find the figures interesting.

URL: http://www.thecounter.com/stats/2007/February/os.php

Of course I'm talking about the masses here, not power users, but I'm guessing anybody that was holding onto their Win98SE is finally starting to make the jump to XP or Vista. I once read in the past that the average person doesn't buy a new computer unless their ghz is 1/3rd of the fastest advertised machine out there. Considering that CPUs have been focus on multicores instead of flat out ghz, I can see why it's taken so much longer this generation. To the uneducated user my 6yr old XP1700 (1.7ghz theoretical) box doesn't seem very slow compared to a 3.2ghz box, even though 6yrs has passed since I bought it.

So to repeat my point, I think Vista is finally taking the last of the casual (or perhaps cheap) Win98 users and converting them and I fully expect the user base to hit 1% or less by the next college season (August).

PS: I'm not trying to create flame-bait or troll, just want to hear some observations & theories on the matter.

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I still think many people in fact bought Vista and are just using it right now since it's brand new. It doesn't mean those people won't keep 98 on their 2nd or 3rd PC.

Besides, if the number of wired computers went up since Vista got out (increase of sells due to people who were waiting for Vista to buy a new computer), the percentage of 98 users can lower (relative) even though as many people as before keep using it (absolute). (don't konw if that was clear?!)

Anyway, I still hope you're wrong but eh... we're used to be a small community now. As long as we stay committed and united, we'll make 98 live longer than any OS has ever done!

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If you know how to take care of your PC and it is doing every thing you want it to, then there is no need to switch. I was actually considering a change to Vista, but then I found out that you cannot upgrade from 98SE to Vista directly. I have seen reports that there is a way to do a clean install with the upgrade CD, but am not sure it would work with a 98 hard disk.

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No, XP is not "extremely stable": Just got a BSOD yesterday on our XP platform. Bad luck heh?

But back to topic:

If someone used w98se until today and finaly bought a Vista license, he probably bought a new computer since Vista requirement is "new computer" and "as much processor speed and ram as money can buy".

In the rare cases some crazy ones had the idea to try Vista on a 3~4 years old computer they definetly had a bad surprise and swiftly went back to w98se. Yet they stayed in the stats as "Vista user".

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That 1% of people must constitute all the people who only use a PC for wordprocessing?

Because lets face it, if this is the only thing you use a computer for (like millions of

students around the world for example) then you're never going to have to come

away from Windows 98.

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Anyway, I still hope you're wrong but eh... we're used to be a small community now. As long as we stay committed and united, we'll make 98 live longer than any OS has ever done!

I'm actually happy Windows 98 user base is low. I'm also happy Microsoft no longer supports Windows 98. It's not like I ever did a "Windows Update" anyway.

I would actually move over to Windows 2000 for Internet use, than XP based on the charts.

This is of course, if I can no longer access the net with 98.

Although I do own an XP Computer, I wouldn't rely on it for online usage until the user base is as low as Windows 2000. And seeing that Windows 2000 and XP is basically the same..... :whistle:

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In the rare cases some crazy ones had the idea to try Vista on a 3~4 years old computer they definitely had a bad surprise and swiftly went back to w98se. Yet they stayed in the stats as "Vista user".
The stats I url'd are web traffic frm a company that samples a very large amount of data from other sites (they mention how many hits to their counter mechanism). So if somebody jumped on Vista and quickly gave up, they would have little to no affect on the stats.
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I would actually move over to Windows 2000, than XP ... seeing that Windows 2000 and XP is basically the same.....
You couldn't be more wrong, if you do some homework you'll find out that:

1. XP is faster, even on less ram

2. You can just disable the themes if you don't like them

3. If you want to nit pick XP's "extra features" simply disable any service you don't want or need.

XP is much better than 2000, but it's been covered enough times already that I'm not going to beat that horse anymore. Don't take my words lightly, I used 2000 as my workstation OS since it went RC0, and I've used XP extensively a few months after it came out.

Edited by travisowens
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I would actually move over to Windows 2000, than XP ... seeing that Windows 2000 and XP is basically the same.....
You couldn't be more wrong, if you do some homework you'll find out that:

1. XP is faster, even on less ram

2. You can just disable the themes if you don't like them

3. If you want to nit pick XP's "extra features" simply disable any service you don't want or need.

XP is much better than 2000, but it's been covered enough times already that I'm not going to beat that horse anymore. Don't take my words lightly, I used 2000 as my workstation OS since it went RC0, and I've used XP extensively a few months after it came out.

All the above is non essential for my needs. My requirements is having an operating system that will work with little to no eye candy. Enabling me to swap components on my motherboard without phoning Microsoft everytime its done. That alone eliminates me using XP for my needs (I'm 100% against the Product Activation method on operating systems). In terms of software, all the applications that I would use that requires XP will work on Windows 2000. And if I want it faster, I'll dip in the registry. Not to mention RAM is cheap :thumbup

Edited by Atmosphere XG
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It seems Vista is putting a dent in the 98 world

If Vista really was taking some win-98 share, then I'd expect Vista to show up in those stats.

I don't see a line-item specifically for Vista. Would Vista be identifiable here as a browser client?

Just looking at the stats for Dec/Jan/Feb shows a lot of volatility in the raw numbers. We probably need to see the results to the nearest 0.1% to see if indeed 98 has lost a full percent.

Any ideas what the "unknown" is? Robots or spiders maybe?

I think your still seeing a lot of corporate use of win-95 and win-98 in europe.

A lot of XP growth in the past 3 years has come from the 2K camp.

If anyone would know more about which OS's are in use, it would be google. Have they ever published their numbers?

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I don't think it's because of Vista as it's already been happening for quite a while, but Vista might help too.

If you look at somewhat better statistics like these (OS share trends), you will see there has been a 50%+ decline in Win98 users over the last year - just like the year before (even the new "MacTels" have surpassed Win98), and a very similar trend for Win2k (close to 50% too). At this rate Win98 will probably be around 0.7% in a year and 0.3% the following (2.8% and 1.6% for Win2k).

The thing is, older OSes are not being supported anymore, and in many ways:

-the OS itself not being supported by the vendor itself (MS). Even Win2k extended supports ends in June 2010. Businesses won't wait 'till then to switch.

-most hardware makers don't particularly care if their newer hardware even works on win9x anymore

-most software developers don't particularly care if their software doesn't run on win9x anymore (e.g. firefox and countless others)

-most recent development tools don't support the old platforms (e.g. .NET Framework 3.0 which is Win XP and newer only)

Without vendor support, the support of the hardware makers (and a increasingly hard time to find replacement parts for older boxes, often at higher prices), less and less software compatibility (won't get better anytime soon), with the many limitations of older OSes becoming more and more of a problem, and without all the (countless) new and useful features of the newer OSes, it's no surprise people are switching, not counting all those who just bought a new PC to replace their old one and came bundled with a newer OS, for any particular reason.

That Vista just came out might help a little bit, but people ditching a ~10yo OS/platform (no matter what it is) should be no surprise... WinXP is already starting to lose some to Vista.

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If someone used w98se until today and finaly bought a Vista license, he probably bought a new computer since Vista requirement is "new computer" and "as much processor speed and ram as money can buy".

In the rare cases some crazy ones had the idea to try Vista on a 3~4 years old computer they definetly had a bad surprise and swiftly went back to w98se. Yet they stayed in the stats as "Vista user".

Oh?

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The basic fact is the amount of Windows 98 users will get smaller and smaller as time goes on.

But that doesn't mean you have to stop using it.

Yes, agreed. If one has invested a load of time to get your PC working great and everything works, why change? My win98SE boots up really fast and runs all the apps I want.

I think that the question of software compatibility can be overstated. Let's hope that Firefox 3 can have a win98Se version developed by this group. That aside, look at all the multimedia and office stuff that *does* work great on win98SE (with all MDGx and others' updates!). There's a HUGE amount of software available that works just fine. And with eBay one can get good replacements still for most of the hardware, even if (when) they're no longer available from stores; e.g. Creative soundcards, graphics cards, etc.

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