sugabeats Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I have been thinking about this lately and I believe that Windows 10 may only be a mild success for a couple reasons. #1. Windows 7 users are like the new version of XP users in that they love Windows 7 and wont leave there OS of choice . #2 Windows 8/8.1 users would most likely jump to Windows 10 which could reduce Windows 8/8.1 to single digits quickly in terms of market share . Windows 8/8.1 user love the new UI and would quickly acclimate to Windows 10. However, Windows 8/8.1 in terms of Market share is only in the teens. #3. With the above two mentioned scenarios Windows 10 wont reduce Windows 7 or Windows XP usage much because in reality XP and 7 users are really of the same mindset but choosing the one OS over the other. With that being said I don't see where Windows 10 can draw from with the exception being Windows 8/8.1 users but like I said that market share is only in the teens. There will be some draw from Windows 7 users but not much. I honestly see in my prediction #1.Windows 7 (40% +/- 5) #2 Windows 10 (30% +/- 5) #3 Windows XP (13% +/- 3) #4 Windows 8/8.1 (10% +/- 2) - These are rough estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I am a Windows 8.1 user who left Windows 7 behind when I figured out how to do everything I had been doing with the older system. Windows 8 could not be made to fit that bill, but Windows 8.1 came along and (with plenty of 3rd party software to make up for what Microsoft had deleted), it just tipped the scales. I'm glad I made the switch; Windows 8.1 has been productive and stable for me. When Win 10 comes out I'll evaluate it (as I already am doing with the previews). My plan is to release the next in my series of books for it when it comes out. But I predict that for several reasons I personally will not upgrade to it on my host workstation right away... 1. New releases are not always as stable as they should be. The current preview build right now, for example, suffers from some resource leak issues that would make it unacceptable for long-term use. It's also reported that it's not a good host system yet for running several big applications I use (e.g., VMware Workstation). 2. Microsoft will have no doubt deleted some stuff that will make Win 10 even less functional than a tweaked and augmented Win 8.1. It will take time for 3rd party developers to take up that slack and make things available that fix the problems. That being said, several of the important 3rd party products I use are already compatible with WIn 10 build 9879. Usually support comes in a matter of weeks after a preview release is made available. 3. Nothing is being done with the OS that makes it a "must have" for a desktop user, so there's every reason to be conservative... If it were to add some new features that made it capable of doing things its predecessors could not do, then it might be more attractive to be an early adopter, but if it's just more Metro/Modern and LESS of other things, then why bother? Yes, there is merit to "keeping current", but it only goes so far. 4. In order to continue to evaluate it, and to test products for it, I can run it in a virtual machine (as I am now), so the traditional parts of "keeping current" so as to be able to develop for the latest and greatest system are satisfied without having to commit all operations to it. Who knows, we may be pleasantly surprised, but that's just not been happening with Microsoft in quite a while so don't hold your breath. -Noel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikedigitize Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Cortana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelC Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Do you honestly think a speech recognition and synthesis program is going to be useful at all? I'd love to be proven wrong, but I have low hopes for that. -Noel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bphlpt Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Noel, if you are responding to:Cortana? and thought "WTF???", like I did, then I think mikedigitize must have seen this article - Microsoft Cortana NFL Picks, Conference Championship Games - and was trying to suggest that sugabeats could use Cortana to predict OS Rankings. Cheers and Regards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaclaz Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Do you honestly think a speech recognition and synthesis program is going to be useful at all? I'd love to be proven wrong, but I have low hopes for that. Honestly, one of the things that had the WOW effect (on geeks) in Blade Runner (1982) was the sequence where Harrison Ford/Deckard scanned and analyzed the photo on the Esper machine through a vocal interface: I guess that a lot of people believe that the now more than 30 (thirty) years old insight into the future is going to become reality soon. What some people might have not noticed about the above scene is that it happens in Deckard's apartment, at night, in a perfectly silent environment. The troubles in real life with voice actuated commands are mainly connected with background noise and other people's voices (or music, ringtones, etc.) that could be misinterpreted by the speech recognition engine, so it's utility is already very limited, and don't forget that if you work in an office there will be a practical joker that will pop out of nowhere just behind your chair and shout "delete and shred open documents" at the most inconvenient moment.... No , speech recognition is nice , and it has some uses, but as "generic" HID (Human Interface Device) it won't be useful anytime soon. jaclaz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Not to mention that some work on the computer is done while collaborating with others, verbally. -Noel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DosProbie Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Windows 10 is a free upgrade for all 7 and 8.1 users (update: RT too) http://www.theverge.com/2015/1/21/7866679/windows-10-will-be-a-free-upgrade-for-windows-7-and-8-1-users http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/01/windows-10-free-for-all-windows-8-1-and-windows-7-users-for-first-year/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Somehow I doubt they'll keep it simple and provide a direct way to make a bootable DVD that doesn't require backflips to install. Otherwise it won't really be free for people who want the ability to reinstall it as needed in a pinch. -Noel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JorgeA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I have been thinking about this lately and I believe that Windows 10 may only be a mild success for a couple reasons. #1. Windows 7 users are like the new version of XP users in that they love Windows 7 and wont leave there OS of choice . #2 Windows 8/8.1 users would most likely jump to Windows 10 which could reduce Windows 8/8.1 to single digits quickly in terms of market share . Windows 8/8.1 user love the new UI and would quickly acclimate to Windows 10. However, Windows 8/8.1 in terms of Market share is only in the teens. #3. With the above two mentioned scenarios Windows 10 wont reduce Windows 7 or Windows XP usage much because in reality XP and 7 users are really of the same mindset but choosing the one OS over the other. With that being said I don't see where Windows 10 can draw from with the exception being Windows 8/8.1 users but like I said that market share is only in the teens. There will be some draw from Windows 7 users but not much. I honestly see in my prediction #1.Windows 7 (40% +/- 5) #2 Windows 10 (30% +/- 5) #3 Windows XP (13% +/- 3) #4 Windows 8/8.1 (10% +/- 2) - These are rough estimates Your analysis and predictions make a lot of sense to me, they're right in line with what I've been thinking. The only quibble I may have is that Microsoft did make some UI changes in Win10 for the sake of desktop users -- bringing back the (Franken)Start Menu and enabling Boot to Desktop without having to go searching for these tweaks on the Web. This may tip the scales in 10's favor for some number of Windows users. To me, this makes the 10 UI less objectionable, but when I look at the opaque window borders I can't help but feel I'm back in 1998, and when I see the all-around flatness I feel I'm back in 1985. And yet they call it "modern" and "progress." --JorgeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DosProbie Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 (edited) Somehow I doubt they'll keep it simple and provide a direct way to make a bootable DVD that doesn't require backflips to install. Otherwise it won't really be free for people who want the ability to reinstall it as needed in a pinch. -Noel Besides the free download I am sure they will offer a alternate dvd to order, but built-in dvd drives are on the way out anyway with the advent of tablets and ultrabooks becoming more popular. Here is a Surface reinstall instructions from Microsoft to one of my customers that managed to do it all by herself (78 yrs young) and when she was in a pinch! from a thumb drive, but then again there are always the exceptions where someone will not read instructions and then will need lots of hand holding, just look at Bigmuscles Aero glass thread to prove that.~DP SurfaceHello Mary, On behalf of Surface support, I would like to thank you for taking the time to contact us regarding the error you have been experiencing with your Surface RT. As we discussed earlier, I am providing you with the instructions on how to create a USB recovery drive for your Surface RT. On behalf of Surface support, I would like to thank you for taking the time to contact us today. As we discussed earlier, I am providing you with the instructions on how to create a USB recovery drive for your Surface RT. Download and create a USB recovery drive To download the recovery drive, you'll need: •A PC running Windows 7 or later. •A USB drive with more than 4GB storage capacity. Important Creating a recovery drive will erase anything that is already stored on your USB drive. Make sure to transfer any important data from your USB drive to another storage device before using it to create a Surface USB recovery drive. 1.Click the download link: http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkID=13892.Insert your USB drive into the USB port of your PC. 3.From the desktop, open File Explorer. 4.Tap and Hold or right-click on the USB drive and choose Format. 5.Select FAT32 as the file system and enter a Volume label to name the USB drive, such as RECOVERY , and then tap or click Start. 6.Tap or click OK to erase the contents of the USB drive. 7.Tap or click OK when the format is complete. 8.Double click on the Zip file that was downloaded 9.Choose the option to "Extract All" at the top and choose the USB Flash Drive as the location. Use a USB recovery drive to reset your Surface (Cannot load Windows): 1.Turn the Surface off by pressing the power button. 2.Insert the USB recovery drive into the USB port. 3.Press and hold the volume-down (-) rocker. 4.Press and release the power button. 5.When the Surface logo appears, release the volume rocker. 6.Surface will start the recovery software on the USB recovery drive. 7.When prompted, choose your language options and keyboard layout. 8.Select Troubleshoot. 9.Select Reset. 10.If prompted, select Repartition the drives. Thank you for choosing Surface! You can always contact us again by requesting a call from http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/support/contact-us/homeor by calling 1-800-MICROSOFT. We are available Monday - Friday from 5:00am to 9:00pm PST and Saturday and Sunday from 6:00am-3:00pm. Please reference service request number 1246274298. Sincerely, MarkMicrosoft Surface Support http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/support/contact-us/home Phone: 1-800-MICROSOFT (1-800-642-7676) Edited January 22, 2015 by DosProbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DosProbie Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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