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Windows 8 - Deeper Impressions


JorgeA

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Here's a heckuva perceptive analysis, not just of why Windows RT is not meeting with success, but of why it cannot succeed:

Microsoft Windows RT price cuts don’t stop the death spiral

The article is so good, I could quote the whole thing. But instead I'll do it the hard way and pick a few of the highest highlights.

The problem is simple, Surface costs too much relative to every competitor on the market. This gem of wisdom will probably not stun the average observer, painfully low sales numbers are a clear indication that they actually understand this point consciously or not.

What most people don’t understand is story behind that, the why not the what. Microsoft can never compete in tablets and phones, period, and this is not a qualified statement, it is an inherent property of the choices the company made over the last 3 decades. Microsoft has no chance in mobile no matter what they do, their very business model precludes sucess in a world they still fail to understand.

The first financial problem is the bloat of Windows. Although this may sound like a technical issue, it is not. As SemiAccurate has been saying for over a year, Windows 8/WART needs many times the hardware that iOS or Android needs to deliver a similar experience. Assuming that Microsoft does not want to deliver, or does not allow their partners to deliver, a device that is painfully slow, stutters, runs out of memory, and crashes a lot, they have a big problem.

To give the user the same experience as even a cheap Android tablet, much less a high end Apple iPad, Microsoft needs to put in significantly more powerful hardware. They need to have a more powerful CPU, more powerful GPU, and vastly more storage. We chronicled this problem last year here, but it is worth a re-read if you don’t completely understand the problem because it is absolutely fatal for WART and Windows 8 mobile devices. To do the same job as an Android or iOS tablet, Windows 8 needs to use so much more hardware that it increases the hardware cost to such a degree that the device can not be competitive in the market.

There are two problems here, first is that Microsoft’s biggest weakness in mobile is in the consumer space, and Office/Outlook doesn’t mean much if anything there. Trust me when I say that teens worldwide care more about the hot social thingy app that is on Android and iOS, but isn’t on Win8, than they do about their Fortune 500 corporate calendar. They use Google, Gmail, and Facebook, Bing and Outlook are not on the top 10 list much less actually desired. Consumers play games and use social networks, Win8 has few if any important apps relevant to these markets. If your corporation hasn’t already standardized on an iPad or Android, they might be swayed to Windows though. Did we mention Surface RT can only run Office RT? Did we mention that Office RT doesn’t have Outlook? Just as a lark, if you read the OfficeRT EULA, you might notice that it precludes the use of Office RT in a corporate setting. This isn’t an own goal, it is just basic incompetence in a multi-billion dollar market.
This is why we say that the price cuts that Microsoft just instigated mean nothing. They are too small to make a difference, at best they erase the OEM’s cost disadvantage to Microsoft but not to Android or iOS devices. They do nothing to alleviate the BoM cost handicap, it is not a problem that can ever be fixed. Customers are staying away in droves, installed base is not just tiny, it is hurting the mainstream Windows sales and software development at this point too. There is essentially zero software cross-compatibility with the desktop ecosystem to benefit from, but all of the legacy bloat the desktop entails is carried as BoM cost for mobile. Developers have to be paid to port because they can clearly see the potential for income is both lacking and unlikely to every grow substantially either. This is the classic platform death spiral.

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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We've seen how MSFT is seeking to milk more $$$ out of its customers by turning Office into a subscription service, and making the purchase of a license so expensive that many customers will opt for the subscription. Here's another way to shear extra $$$ from the sheep:

If you break your Surface RT/Pro kickstand, you will have to purchase a new Surface device

This is more industry standard across all notebook/tablet (fondleslab) manufacturers. It is increasingly difficult outside of some whitebook brands to do proper repairs on a notebook. I get many in from friends or family and they are all big name brands which means they use non-standard parts. Especially the case with the slim-line types that use clips rather than screws to hold them together. Most often than not, it ends up you go look on Ebay for replacement parts and sometimes you can find them for a good price. Otherwise if it is a common point of failure (HP dv notebook motherboard) you are better off buying a new one.

These things have been getting newer tech inside of them, but as a result the outsides are getting cheaper. People are clutzes and they drop their stuff all the time. And this stuff isn't tough enough to take that kind of punishment. Sure you can find some rugged or modular notebooks/tablets, but they are out of the way (not sold in stores) and are more expensive.

I used to like taking in notebook repairs for people, but it soon became evident that they are too cheaply made and most times I can do nothing for them except say to go buy a new one.

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Shipments of PCs fell 14% worldwide last quarter, according to IDC. It was the worst yearly decline since IDC began tracking the data in 1994.

When I saw the headline I wanted to write the following words, but they're already in the article:

Bob O'Donnell, a vice president at IDC, said in the company's report that "the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market."

He slammed WIndows 8's "radical changes" to the user interface, particularly the removal of the iconic start button, and intimated that the switch is confusing for customers.

If there weren't thousands of posts in this and the "First Impressions" thread, I'd go back and see if any of us clearly predicted that Windows 8 would actually accelerate the decline in PC sales, rather than stop the bleeding let alone cure the ailing PC market.

"Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market," O'Donnell said in the report.

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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We've seen how MSFT is seeking to milk more $$$ out of its customers by turning Office into a subscription service, and making the purchase of a license so expensive that many customers will opt for the subscription. Here's another way to shear extra $$$ from the sheep:

If you break your Surface RT/Pro kickstand, you will have to purchase a new Surface device

This is more industry standard across all notebook/tablet (fondleslab) manufacturers. It is increasingly difficult outside of some whitebook brands to do proper repairs on a notebook. I get many in from friends or family and they are all big name brands which means they use non-standard parts. Especially the case with the slim-line types that use clips rather than screws to hold them together. Most often than not, it ends up you go look on Ebay for replacement parts and sometimes you can find them for a good price. Otherwise if it is a common point of failure (HP dv notebook motherboard) you are better off buying a new one.

These things have been getting newer tech inside of them, but as a result the outsides are getting cheaper. People are clutzes and they drop their stuff all the time. And this stuff isn't tough enough to take that kind of punishment. Sure you can find some rugged or modular notebooks/tablets, but they are out of the way (not sold in stores) and are more expensive.

I used to like taking in notebook repairs for people, but it soon became evident that they are too cheaply made and most times I can do nothing for them except say to go buy a new one.

The drawbacks of making entire computers disposable like this were brought vividly to mind last week when the HDD on my Vista laptop developed a dire problem and I could no longer boot to it or even read it reliably.

Were it not for the fact that I can open up the case to replace the HDD, I'd have been facing hundreds of dollars in new expenses for a whole new laptop, instead of $50 for a new 2.5" drive. Had this been a Surface, the question would have been moot, as (I understand that) opening the case voids the warranty, and in any event it's said to be really difficult to open it safely even for a professional. (Can provide links if necessary.)

--JorgeA

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I've never understood how being "new" constitutes a reason for buying a product, much less for heaping scorn on those who aren't interested.

I feel it stems from a kind of false equivocation: technology improves over time therefore each new technology is an improvement. While innovation and experimentation should be encouraged, failure should also be allowed, and there should be a realization that some attempts will be regressions. As time passes, the failures are less remembered than the successes thus giving the appearance of an uninterrupted string of improvements. After enough time, people start forgetting what has failed before and attempt to reintroduce bad concepts. As an example, just look at how many people are talking about full screen apps, single-tasking, and rote memorization of complex actions as innovations. We spent years trying to free ourselves of this. Even worse, Microsoft was once a primary innovator away from these computing concepts.

That's a great point: we tend to remember the hits and to forget the misfires, which gives the false impression of steady progress.

--JorgeA

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Next Xbox to feature AMD processor, not compatible with 360 titles ( TechSpot 2013-04-09 )

Microsoft's move to AMD's more general-purpose x64 "PC" architecture indicates that existing Xbox 360 games will not be compatible with its next-generation console. The Xbox 360 is fueled by a 64-bit Power PC chip designed by IBM.

Oh yeah, it's just a rumor. Nothing to see here. Move along now. :lol:

Next-gen Xbox will reportedly work with set-top boxes to let console control TV services ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

Rumors that Microsoft's next-generation Xbox will require a persistent Internet connection make a little more sense if a new report is accurate.

According to a report by The Verge, the next-generation Xbox will work with subscription television set-top boxes, letting the console control the entertainment services. The report indicates that the service requires a persistent Internet connection because of streaming services and content information.

Oh yeah, it's just a rumor. Nothing to see here. Move along now. :lol:

Xbox music free streams will be monetized by TargetSpot ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

TargetSpot had the following to say about the announcement:

TargetSpot will serve audio ads across all Windows 8 and Windows RT devices where Xbox Music free streaming service is available, providing a comprehensive monetization solution for Microsoft’s music content. Microsoft will leverage TargetSpot’s ad insertion technology to deliver highly targeted and relevant advertising to its listeners.

It's not a surprise that Microsoft is going down this route as it needs to find sustainable ways to support its many different platforms to be able to stay in the cash positive position that it has sustained for many years.

Well now, this makes the Scroogle campaign look a little hypocritical, wouldn't you say? :whistle: Love the last sentence there from NeoWin ( "It's not a surprise ..." ) who will rationalize away anything and everything! :lol:

The latest roundup of XboxFiles ( The Truth Is Out There ) ...

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Microsoft says manipulating search results affects traffic, stares disapprovingly at Google ( NeoWin 2013-03-27 )

^ This one from two weeks ago.

Microsoft's latest 'Scroogled' ad attacks Android with privacy fears ( The Verge 2013-04-09 )

Microsoft hits out at Google with new "Scroogled" ad ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

^ These from the past two days. Hmmm. That's at least the 4th 5th 6th 10th(?) story of this nature since fall.

You know what's really weird? The word Xbox does not appear in that latest story at NeoWin. Xbox music free streams will be monetized by TargetSpot.

The Scroogle campaign since last fall ...

And the unintended consequences? ...

EDIT: added article(s)

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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I actually support the removal of backcompat from consoles, or at least I feel it should be an option. True backcompat, putting the hardware guts in, is a cost that needs to be passed onto the consumer. Software backcompat is often disappointing and essentially needs to be done per-game, thus limiting the number of practically available titles. I think most people interested in playing the old games will have the old consoles. However, the durability of the XBox 360 is an issue so there's more of an argument here than with any other console. Something else I wish they'd do is allow daisy-chaining consoles with HDMI passthroughs so that people don't need to fiddle with wires when changing consoles. This, too, would be an added cost but I don't think it would be significant. I could be wrong.

Of course, I do expect the cost savings to be passed onto the consumer. If this console costs $500 or up it better have amazing specs.

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IDC: PC shipments down 13.9% for the first quarter, blames Windows 8 ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

PC industry posts steepest quarterly sales decline in history ( Tom's Hardware 2013-04-11 )

This caps off about two weeks of depressing news for the MicroZealot crowd. What is most interesting is that the January 31 deadline came and went ( see Post #1710 ) for Windows 8 sale price jump from $39 to $199 ( or $119 for non-Pro ). It is absolutely clear that there seems to be no visible spike in sales results.

Microsoft Desktop Optimization Pack (MDOP) 2013 released

( this is for enterprise of course ). In keeping with their usual disdain for the loyal customers, important software like DaRT is NOT available to the hapless home user, who is instead expected to get software expertise for free from friends, family or tech blogs like this. What a scam. But there is something interesting in there ...

The official Windows Business blog has the details of what's included in MDOP 2013, which has Service Pack 1 updates of AGPM 4.0, DaRT 8.0, App-V 5.0, and UE-V 1.0. However, the biggest new addition is the official release of MBAM 2.0. In fact, its so big, it gets a separate and highly detailed blog post on the official Microsoft Springboard series blog.

Now this isn't the first time that Microsoft has stolen someone else's obvious trademark. Malwarebytes Anti-Malware aka MBAM has been around for at least 5 years now. And what is especially troublesome is that it is a very very good program. Previously Microsoft pulled the same thing with Terabyte by ripping off their well-known nickname for their highly regarded Bootit Next-Generation aka BING. If I am not mistaken, that was settled out of court for unspecified terms. This one over MBAM should be sent to court if you ask me because associating Microsoft with it can only damage the otherwise stellar reputation they now enjoy. :lol:

Facebook wants to charge you $16 to message a celebrity ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

Docstoc starts selling its document templates via Office 2013 ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

Two more stories that indicate the "monetize-everything" direction the internet is heading. Every company is now looking at all of us as open wallets just waiting to be emptied. Microsoft's angle with Office going forward should now be obvious to all. Office will no longer be considered end-user software, it will be a marketplace. This small step with templates is just getting their feet wet. What comes next is missing fonts you can buy, clip-art and much more. In-Game purchases coming to an Office near you. They will piece out every bit of the existing software infrastructure to reel you in. Now the Xbox "always-on" thing makes sense. Now all their other moves are lining up. You want weather reports a la carte? It's coming. We're gonna need a new internet. :yes:

A word to the wise, don't scrap any old computers anymore and do not throw out old software media. That is the game they are playing : attrition. As a computer owner and user you can only lose this game by playing it, so don't play. Keep the old stuff forever. People like us on this forum and others will always be around to help make them usable again. That is, until they ban these forums or censor the contents. :lol:

EDIT: added article(s)

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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A fool and his money...

Docstoc starts selling its document templates via Office 2013 ( NeoWin 2013-04-10 )

Two more stories that indicate the "monetize-everything" direction the internet is heading. Every company is now looking at all of us as open wallets just waiting to be emptied. Microsoft's angle with Office going forward should now be obvious to all. Office will no longer be considered end-user software, it will be a marketplace. This small step with templates is just getting their feet wet. What comes next is missing fonts you can buy, clip-art and much more. In-Game purchases coming to an Office near you. They will piece out every bit of the existing software infrastructure to reel you in. Now the Xbox "always-on" thing makes sense. Now all their other moves are lining up. You want weather reports a la carte? It's coming. We're gonna need a new internet. :yes:

A word to the wise, don't scrap any old computers anymore and do not throw out old software media. That is the game they are playing : attrition. As a computer owner and user you can only lose this game by playing it, so don't play. Keep the old stuff forever. People like us on this forum and others will always be around to help make them usable again. That is, until they ban these forums or censor the contents. :lol:

I'm taking the advice. First I future-proofed my computing with a Win7 system sporting an SSD and 2TB HDD with an i7-3770; the laptop will be next. If I can't find a lappie with a 36xxQM CPU and Windows 7 at a decent price, I'll wipe Win8 off the one I do buy (I'll triple-glove for the wiping :puke: ) and use the spare Win7 license that I purchased last year.

I also have extra Office 2010 and Outlook 2007 disks (probably not to be used in the same system). Have no interest in cloud services or social media, so any new "features" along those lines in future editions are meaningless to me.

Beyond that, if MSFT never gets around to fixing things, it'll be Linux boxes for me. Already ran a live DVD on the laptop for a week while waiting for the replacement HDD, and it wasn't half-bad -- whatever needed to be saved/stored went onto a flash drive.

--JorgeA

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Adam Orth leaves Microsoft following 'always-on' console controversy ( The Verge 2013-04-10 )

Microsoft Studios employee departs company following Twitter comments ( NeoWin 2013-04-11 )

Microsoft's Adam Orth Gone Following Twitter Outburst ( Maximum PC 2013-04-11 )

While his statements were never thought of as "official" comments from Microsoft, the company later issued an apology for Orth's Twitter statements, calling them "inappropriate." Orth quickly made his Twitter account private. Following that news, Game Informer reports, via unnamed sources, that Orth has since left Microsoft.

It's currently not known if Orth voluntarily decided to leave, was asked by Microsoft to resign or was fired outright. Orth was hired by Microsoft early last year, but it is not publicly known exactly what game project(s) he was working on in the Microsoft Studios division. He previously worked at PopCap Games and LucasArts, among other game publishers and developers.

Yet Ballmer still survives.

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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The PC sales drop is something I was made aware of just recently. With my department being shooed away into a satellite location for the past couple years, we are no longer involved in the day to day production process. As a result, we have a "disconnect" with what trends are occuring in our facilities and can only really judge things based on what projects are assigned or what tech support we might have to do. Most of the work (non-custom stuff involved) has been primarily desktop related. I had only recently found out that desktops are down everywhere (don't need these news reports or numbers for that) and that mostly people are interested in servers and notebooks. I wouldn't necessarily blame Windows 8 for this slump. Windows 8 may have an impact in the retail/big box space since those stores usually do not offer Downgrade Rights purchases. The last "slump" that occured was with Vista but it wasn't until after the Downgrade Rights to XP period expired that the desktop/notebook sales went down. Then again, I see a lot of companies often do not want to bother with doing the program, so you see many that abandone Windows 7 altogether, even though they can still ofter it if they want to. Slackers. :angel

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Pathetic bul***** from Neowin as usual:

http://www.neowin.net/news/the-idc-report-gone-astray-is-microsoft-really-at-fault

At what point do we stop blaming Microsoft and start blaming the vendors who failed to capitalize on the true value of Windows 8? Microsoft does not make a laptop or a desktop, but only a tablet (which the IDC does not appear to count in its calculations), so for an item to sell, it requires a vendor to build desirable products using Microsoft’s software. If there are few desirable products on the market, then the market will contract, as consumers have no reason to spend their disposable income.

The IDC took a slanted view to the numbers it was seeing and tried to justify them by only looking at one side of the equation. The market is a complex arena of vendors of hardware and software and if one party comes up short, then the entire ecosystem will suffer. But to point the finger only at Microsoft when Lenovo bucked that trend seems a bit biased and reckless by the IDC.

Metrotards are running wild & crazy!

http://www.neowin.net/news/idc-pc-shipments-down-139-for-the-first-quarter-blames-windows-8#comment-2163505

Only reason OEMs are screaming for fixes, is because of people like you who are spamming threads like this and the entire internet with "WINDOWS 8 SUCKS" while having no clue what the hell you are talking about.

The changes are much, much less radical then from MSDOS to Windows 1/2/3 or from 3.11 to 95.

Mainly because THE DESKTOP IS STILL INTACT. The button is gone, few new features are added (please take good note of the word added) and the Start menu has been combined with the Desktop into a Start Screen (Both functionalities have been with us on Windows for almost 2 decades now, and the only thing they basically did... is combine it).

Get it through your thick skull and thousands of haters like you. The only thing the haters do is cause a new XP Era but with Windows 7.

Windows 7 is fine now, XP was still quite fine shortly after release of Vista... But look at it now.

You would think they have been raised in North Korea. They have no idea how a market works. Even if what this tard says would be true, fact is that these "additions" p*** many people off, and thus hobble sales. This means that these additons must be removed or made optional.

Get it through your thick skull and thousands of haters like you. The only thing the haters do is cause a new XP Era but with Windows 7. - yea, so what? No one (except MS maybe) is losing any sleep over XPs longevity. Is that even an argument in any way?

Edited by Formfiller
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Eightards are disintegrating by the minute:

http://www.neowin.net/news/the-idc-report-gone-astray-is-microsoft-really-at-fault

The comments are so pathetic, yet tense, one could think they will take a gun and kill themselves any minute.

You can still buy Windows 7.. so if windows 8 is so bad and this rumor is true, why isn't windows 7 saving the market?

What if the Surface and Surface pro are having a statistical change towards IDC metrics? What if PC's are just having a longer tail? What is Xbox and PS nextgen console sales are slowing down PC? what if the fact everyone already has 3-4 pcs lying around and they all perform well?

Seriously, was there EVER any positive news regarding Windows 8? It all amounts to MS says W8 is good thus W8 is good.

Edited by Formfiller
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